[EM] Finding the probable best candidate?

[Forest Simmons]

Pragmatically speaking, in a democracy what do we have besides voter
utilities, intuitions, and hunches to measure the goodness of a candidate? 

The utilities don't have to be "utilitarian."  They include the altruistic
values held dear by the voters as well as their economic interests. 

The "Garbage In Garbage Out" maxim applies here.  No voting system can be
expected to pick a winner on the basis of God's (or even Blake's)
utilities if those values do not reside in the hearts and minds of the
voters. 

Now for the sake of argument, let's assume that we agree that we want
methods that pick candidates that maximize voter utility.

That still leaves open at least two important questions.

(1) How do we ascertain voter utilities accurately? The uncertainty
principle operates here; the measurement process inevitably introduces
uncertainties.  How do we minimize this uncertainty to the extent
possible?

(2) Voter utility is a vector valued function.  Which scalar combination
of components of that function are we trying to maximize?  Their sum? 
Their median value?  Their mode? Their sum of squares?  Their minimum? 
Their lowest quartile value?  The distance from 100 percent utility in all
components as measured by some metric or another? 

There are infinitely many possible choices for (2), and they all affect
(1).

How many methods have actually been designed with these considerations at
the forefront?

How many methods, by sheer luck or the good intuition of the inventor,
stand up reasonably well under the light of these questions?

Not many.

Forest