[EM] Cambridge Mass. example
Elisabeth Varin/Stephane Rouillon
stephane.rouillon at sympatico.ca
Mon Apr 8 22:23:50 PDT 2002
Mr. Davison,
first there is a slight error in your data:
twelveth ballot of the second column is
01,19,07,02,07,09,12 (I suppose one of the 07 is a 17....)
Fortunately it as no impact on the result....
The problem is no change at all can have an impact on the result.
In this example, candidate 19 has so much support,
no tactical vote could come near threatening him...
Would you have another example, maybe a little bit smaller,
but with a tight run between at least 2 or 3 candidates?
Finally, this example allowed me to simulate what my weight producing
technic using
IRV would deliver as a final result:
Rounds 1 to 4: Candidates 03-04-05-10 receive 0 vote each
Round 5: Candidate 18 receives 0 vote
Rounds 6 to 7: Candidate 06 receives 1 vote
Candidate 13 receives 0 vote
Round 8: Candidate 11 receives 0 vote
Rounds 9 to 10: Candidate 09 receives 0 vote
Candidate 12 receives 1 vote
Round 11: Candidate 16 receives 3 votes
Rounds 12 to 14: Candidate 01 receives 1 vote
Candidates 08-15 receive 3 votes each
Round 15: Candidate 17 receives 12 votes
Round 16: Candidate 07 receives 10 votes
Round 17: Candidate 02 receives 8 votes
Round 18: Candidate 14 receives 148 votes
Round 19: Candidate 19 receives 325 votes
Total: 515
votes
I presented candidates in order of increasing round elimination without
detail
for multiple scenarios.
You may not fine exactly the same result if you treat equalities in last
place as
multiple knock outs... I ponderate equally each scenario.
At this point Mr. Davison would declare Candidate 19 winner.
I do not. If in every other districts other candidates of party 19 get
better results than this one (325 votes), thus this candidate is a lousy
representative of party 19 philosophy: he will not get elected.
And Candidate 17 (12 votes), despite his third place, might get elected
if an optimal
integer proportional representation gives his party one seat and
he got the best result for his party...
For more details, feel free to ask.
Stéphane Rouillon.
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