[EM] Electoral Numbers Game Favors Bush For 2004 Election

[DEMOREP1 at aol.com]

D- Having a gerrymander stacked deck is always nice for an incumbent.

Abolish the infamous Electoral College NOW.

Democracy Remedy-- One person- One Vote for U.S.A. President ---- who is 
supposed to be the President of ALL of the People of the U.S.A. and NOT just 
the President of the People in the gerrymander areas that provide 270 
Electoral College votes -- indirectly by about 25 percent of the total voters 
for President.
---
Electoral Numbers Game Favors Bush For 2004 Election 
by Stu Rothenberg

While redistricting's greatest impact will be felt in November, 
reapportionment's effects may not be felt most acutely for two years, when 
President Bush tries to put together 270 electoral votes to win a second 
term. 

We can't know now exactly what odds the President will face in his expected 
bid for re-election, but we do know that he'll have a bit of a cushion next 
time: seven additional Electoral College votes to play with. 

In 2000, Bush carried seven of the eight states that gained population over 
the last decade. Those states will gain House seats in the midterm elections 
and electoral votes in 2004. In contrast, Al Gore carried six of the 10 
states that will lose electoral votes in 2004.

Viewed another way, states that went for Bush will gain 11 electoral votes 
through reapportionment and will lose just four, while states that went for 
Gore will gain just a single electoral vote (in California), but will lose 
eight.

If Bush carries the same 30 states he did in 2000, he would draw 278 
Electoral College votes instead of the 271 he received in 2000. And the 
Democratic nominee's total number of electoral votes would fall from 266 to 
260.

Seven additional electoral votes may not seem like a lot, but they would more 
than offset the possible loss of Nevada's five electoral votes if the voters 
of that state punish Bush in 2004 for his decision to proceed with his plan 
to store nuclear waste in Nevada's Yucca Mountain.

Bush has a different kind of advantage when it comes to the closest contests 
of 2000. 

Seven states were decided by a margin of fewer than 3 points last time, and 
Bush won just two of them, Florida (a virtual dead heat) and New Hampshire 
(by 1.3 points). Gore, on the other hand, carried four states by one-half of 
a point or less (New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon), and one state by 
just 2.4 points (Minnesota).

The two states that Bush won narrowly will account for 31 electoral votes in 
2004, while the five closest states that went for Gore will deliver 39 
electoral votes next time.

That means Bush is slightly better positioned than the 2004 Democratic 
nominee is to pick up additional electoral votes.

But that math tells only part of the story, since a contrary dynamic - 
Hispanic population growth and (potential) political participation - should 
benefit Bush's eventual Democratic opponent in two years.

Demographic trends could have their greatest impact in a handful of 
competitive states where a growing number of Hispanic voters could make a 
difference in just four years.

In Nevada, where Hispanics constituted 12 percent of the total electorate in 
2000, Bush carried the state by just 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent. 
Hispanics, on the other hand, preferred Gore 64 percent to 33 percent. If 
their numbers continue to grow, and they give the 2004 Democratic nominee the 
same percentage of the vote that they gave to Gore, Hispanics could move the 
state's electoral votes into the Democratic column.

The same demographic trend could affect races in other states in the South 
and the West. In Arizona, which Bush won by just 6 points, 51 percent to 45 
percent, Hispanics constituted 10 percent of the 2000 electorate. They gave 
65 percent of their votes to Gore.

And in New Mexico, where the two finished in a virtual dead heat (with Gore 
getting the state's electoral votes), Hispanics accounted for 12 percent of 
voters and preferred Gore by better than 2-to-1, 66 percent to 32 percent.

Even in Florida, demographic trends could have an interesting impact for 
Bush. Two years ago, Bush beat Gore among Florida Hispanics, 49 percent to 48 
percent, a better showing than the Republican had statewide. On the surface, 
that would seem to be good news for Bush, since any growth in Hispanics could 
benefit the President's re-election bid.

But Hispanic growth in the Florida electorate in 2000 was among non-Cuban 
Hispanics, and continued growth in that demographic group would almost 
certainly benefit the Democratic nominee, not Bush, in 2004.

Obviously, the 2004 presidential contest will present voters a choice of 
parties and candidates, and the outcome will depend on dozens of factors. The 
contest ultimately could be a blowout. But if it's close, small changes in 
electoral votes and demographics could prove to be the difference. That's why 
the parties will spend plenty of time going over all of the numbers - and why 
the numbers could count as much as the candidates.