[EM] Approval Voting vs Instant Runoff Voting

[MIKE OSSIPOFF]

Craig wrote:

>>This question is open to all the strategically minded posters; Say with 
>>the
>above utilities (100, 25, 20, 0 - assign A,B,C,D respectively).  One 
>opinion
>poll shows (and, being an approval election, these are approval polls so
>they show the predicted winner), that A will get 36 percent of the vote, B
>will get 40, C will get 45 and D will get 44.
>
>You even have information about the accuracy of the polls; accuracy within
>5% of the predicted outcome is 90% (that is, 90% chance that A will get
>between 31 and 41%), and, our general understanding of such polls claiming
>this kind of accuracy is that it is more likely to be closer to the
>predicted outcome than further away.  How should you vote?

As Moore pointed out, sometimes there could be reason to suspect bullet
voting in that poll by voters who wouldn't bullet vote in the election.
If that's expected to be llikely, then favoriteness polling would be
better. Voters might have a good guess about who the A voters' 2nd
choice is, etc.

But in a situation like Nader, Gore, & Bush, a Nader voter doesn't
gain much by insincere bullet-voting in the poll, because a middle
voter isn't likely to compromise on an extreme anyway. So often
the poll might be reliable. If it's by an organization that you trust,
rather than the usual pollsters.

Mike Ossipoff

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