Probabilistic criteria (was Re: [EM] Probabilistic criteria. Participation & no-show.)
SEppley at alumni.caltech.edu
Fri May 5 09:35:35 PDT 2000
Markus S wrote:
> Mike O wrote:
> > Maybe for academic purposes, putting the criteria in terms
> > of probabilities instead of actual winners would be good,
> > because it would make the criteria applicable to probabilistic
> > methods. Because, ideally, it's good to be completely general.
> > But for actual practical purposes, it's more useful to
> > talk about concrete outcomes rather than probabilities. For one
> > thing, I know of no probabilistic method that is in actual use,
> > or which has any significant amount of advocacy for public
> > elections. I've only heard of one person advocating such a
> > method, and he didn't have a proposal, only the suggestion
> > that maybe a good method of that type could someday be found.
> I guess that you are talking about Albert Langer. But remember
> e.g. that Lucien Saumur promotes Smith//RandomCandidate.
All of the procedures for electing candidates to public office
of which I'm aware being actually used are probabilistic, in the
sense that ties are possible and when there's a tie a random
mechanism such as a coin toss is used. Just because ties would
be rare doesn't make a procedure deterministic.
It's sensible to speak of "practical compliance" if out-of-
compliance scenarios would be very rare. But it's nicer to be
able to speak of complete compliance.
I haven't seen any messages posted by Lucien in years. Is it
correct to use the present tense when describing his advocacy?
---Steve (Steve Eppley seppley at alumni.caltech.edu)
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