CV&D Update

[Donald E Davison]

  ---------- Forwarded Letter -----------
Date: Wed, 3 Mar 1999 22:28:43 -0500
From: Rob Richie <FairVote at compuserve.com>
Subject: CVD, 3/3
Sender: Rob Richie <FairVote at compuserve.com>

March 3, 1999

To:   Center for Voting and Democracy
Fr:   Rob Richie, Executive Director, www.fairvote.org
Re:   International Voting System News / UK in the Spotlight

There is a good deal of domestic news-in-progress. Look for an
update next week, including news of: the introduction of a new
bill in Congress to allow full representation systems for U.S.
House elections; serious movement for "instant runoff voting"
in several state legislatures; and the Department of Justice
taking positions in support of use of full representation systems
in New York and Illinois.

This update will focus on international developments, where
the next few months will be critical ones. Israel, Indonesia and
South Africa are among nations holding elections with
proportional representation. Italy will hold a national
referendum on its "mixed member" form of proportional
representation (PR), and the Japanese parliament may take
steps to makes its system less proportional. New Zealand will
prepare for its second PR election later this year. Of perhaps
most influence in the United States, British voters will use
forms of PR to elect its delegation to the European parliament
and its new legislatures in Wales and Scotland. A governemnt
bill will be debated in the House of Commons to institute
mixed member PR for city council elections and instant runoff
voting for mayoral elections in London in 2000.

Below is a long excerpt from a news-filled assessment of
Britain's constitutional reforms by University of Notre Dame
doctoral student Thomas Lundberg, and a series of short items
about other international elections and electoral system talk.
I've asked Thomas to write periodic updates during the year as
matters progress in Britain. His full update and future ones will
be sent to our "core list" rather than this larger list.

Following are these items:

- South Africa's PR Elections Set for June 2
- New Zealand: Prime Minister Shipley Changes Mind on PR
- Italy to vote on election system April 18
- Japan: LDP Plan to Reduce PR Seats Hits Roadblocks
- Indonesia Keeps PR After All
- Israel Holds Primaries for List Seats
- Bangladesh: "Voters Ignore Violence" - Reuters headline
- Quebec: More Statistics about a Flawed System
- United Kingdom News
- Excerpt from Thomas Lundberg's Assessment of UK Reform

* South Africa's PR Elections Set for June 2

South Africa converted to proportional representation for its
first all-race elections in 1994. That widely-recognized success
contributed to a 1996 vote to put the principle of proportional
representation in the nation's constitution.

The Associated Press reports on March 3 that President Nelson
Mandela told parliament that South Africa would hold its
second proportional representation elections on June 2.
Mandela is constitutionally barred from officially proclaiming
the election date until after April 30, but he said he was
unofficially revealing it early to allow people still registering to
vote to know where they will be on ballot day.

Mandela has led the nation since 1994's all-race ballot ended
white rule, plans to retire after the election. He is almost
certain to be succeeded by Deputy President Thabo Mbeki.
Recent opinion polls have shown the ruling African National
Congress easily ahead of any other political party and likely to
win another clear majority in the 400-strong National
Assembly.

* New Zealand: Prime Minister Shipley Changes Mind on PR

New Zealanders adopted a German Style "mixed member
proportional" (MMP) system in a 1993 national referendum. Its
leading political opinions were the ruling National Party. The
Wellington Dominion in February reports: "Prime Minster
Jenny Shipley says she no longer believes first past the post is
the best electoral system for New Zealand. Mrs Shipley, an
opponent of MMP [Mixed Member Proportional] when it was
first introduced at the last election, said on radio in London
yesterday the real question now was whether New Zealanders
had chosen the best form of proportional representation.

"She confirmed she would not tell her British counterpart,
Tony Blair, whether Britain should abandon first past the post
in favour of some form of proportional representation. Mrs
Shipley, whose job it will be this year to convince voters she is
an enthusiastic and effective leader under MMP, said the new
system was working for New Zealand.
"She rejected the interviewers claims that New Zealanders were
tired of MMP and wanted to move back to the previous
system. 'I think that's probably going further that is the
situation..... I think that people have found the change a very
new and to some extent a disruptive experience. But for all that
I think that PR can deliver good governing systems, and
certainly has improved the diversity of Parliament. It also
certainly slows down the way in which the governing system
can work and there is still debate about it at home".

Mrs Shipley said she had not voted for MMP and had always
felt first past the post for a small country like New Zealand
was better. But asked if "in her heart" she wanted a return to
the old system Mrs Shipley said: "I do not... I think there is a
lot of discussion in New Zealand as to whether the format of
MMP was the correct one."

* Italy to vote on election system April 18

Italians will have a non-binding referendum on April 18 in the
third referendum in eight years on its electoral system. As
Reuters reported on February 19 -- in a story from which many
of the details below are drawn, along with a January article in
the Financial Times -- the vote is "in the hope of ridding the
country once and for all of its notoriously fragile coalitions and
unstable governments."

The problem for Italians seeking this goal is that Italy's politics
are far too geographically fragmented to result in one party
winning a majority of seats in a straight winner-take-all
system -- or, if it occurs, it will be with that party having very
little representation in significant portions of the country.

The referendum will ask voters to replace the proportional
representation element of the current system used in 25% of
seats with a system in which 90% are elected by winner-take-
all. If the voters support change, as seems likely, a law must be
drawn up on how to assign the 155 seats in the lower house
Chamber of Deputies that are currently chosen proportionally.
If not, the system remains as it is.

The current government has drawn up a draft law on how to
change the system if the referendum passes. According to the
decree, 90 percent of the 630 seats in the Chamber would be
elected by a first past-the-post system. If no one candidate
takes more than 50 percent of the vote the leading two
candidates go to a second round.

Of the remaining 10 percent of seats, half would go to the
coalition that has won overall, while the rest would guarantee
smaller parties seats in the chamber. But the bill has met
opposition from the centre-right opposition and from some
in the centre-left ruling coalition.

Politically, the referendum is supported by politicians from
Italy's main political parties. (In a typically naive comment,
Walter Veltroni, who heads the left wing DS, said the
referendum opens the way for a two-party system and for
guaranteeing government stability.) Both Forza Italia and
Alleanza Nazionale, the main rightwing parties, also support
the referendum. Italy's greens and the smaller leftwing parties
have said that they will campaign for a "No" vote.

* Japan: LDP Plan to Reduce PR Seats Hits Roadblocks

The Liberal Democratic Party has dominated Japanese politics
since World War II. In the 1990s, the electoral system was
changed from one semi-proportional system (the single-non-
transferable vote, in relatively small multi-seat districts) to
another (a "parallel" mixed member PR system in which the
party that wins most districts seats can still win most of the PR
seats). A Feb. 19 article from Kyodo reports that: "The ruling
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to call on opposition
parties to agree on the establishment of a council to discuss a
reduction of seats in the House of Representatives, LDP
sources said Friday. The decision follows a policy agreement to
cut the number of seats that was reached by the LDP and the
Liberal Party (LP) in January in forming a coalition
government, the sources said. The two parties agreed to cut the
number of proportional representation seats in the 500-member
lower house to 150 from the current 200. The 300 single-seat
constituency seats will remain intact.

"The two parties originally planned to submit legislation
needed to implement the cuts in the current regular Diet
session, and to aim at reducing the seats from the next lower
house election, which must be held by October 2000, officials
of the two parties said earlier. An executive member of the
LDP Diet Affairs Committee said of the LDP's proposal on
setting up the council before submitting the legislation, 'It is an
issue that concerns all Diet members. We cannot force them to
accept the policy.'...

* Indonesia Keeps PR After All

In a case of reason emerging victorious, Indonesia in January
backed away from plans to eliminate proportional
representation. PR had been discredited for many by its use
under former dictator Suharto - in tightly-controlled elections
dominated by Suharto's party -- but analyses of the impact of
winner-take-all elections on representation of the nation's great
diversity and with tens of parties getting ready for elections this
year led to maintaining a PR system.

Associated Press reported on 1/28: "Indonesia's parliamentary
leaders yesterday resolved remaining differences over three
political laws, clearing the way for the first democratic
elections in 40 years. The heads of the four factions hammered
out complex last-minute compromises to allow a final vote on
today's deadline, lifting fears that a deadlock would cause a
delay in the June 7 vote....

"Parliament compromised on a mix of district and proportional
voting, rather than a district system as proposed by the
government. Seats will be allotted proportionally but parties
will have to field candidates in up to 324 districts to get on all
the ballots, a tall order for many of the more than 100 parties
that want to participate. Diplomats expected only 10-15 parties
to run."

* Israel Holds Primaries for List Seats

Israel on May 17 will hold its second elections with its new
system in which voters cast one vote directly for prime minister
and one for parliament: a splitting of votes that had the
unintended consequence of further fracturing of the party
system in the first use of the system. As one way of opening
up the system to more democratic control, the Labor Party --
one of the two major parties -- held primaries in February.

Associated Press on February 16 reports: "A Moroccan-born
history professor won the elections for the Israeli opposition
Labor Party's list of candidates for parliament, according to
unofficial results published today. Labor hopes the top
candidate, Shlomo Ben-Ami, will help lure voters of Sephardic,
or Middle Eastern, descent away from Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party in May 17 elections....

"In Monday's primaries, 163,000 registered party members
could choose among 82 candidates. The list of candidates for
parliament is not determined entirely by the primaries. Party
leader Ehud Barak, who won the party's nomination for prime
minister, has already been given the No. 1 slot, followed by
second place for Shimon Peres, a former prime minister from
Labor, and then by the candidates elected in the primaries....
Barak has also reserved several secure slots for newcomers and
outsiders who he hopes will make the Labor list more attractive
to a broader group of voters.

"Last week, Netanyahu's Likud Party put together what was
widely considered a list with women and candidates of
Sephardic, or Middle Eastern, background, scoring in the top
five. Under Israel's system of proportional representation, the
number of votes each party receives nationwide
determines the number of seats it is awarded in parliament."

* Bangladesh: "Voters Ignore Violence" - Reuters headline

Bangladesh is one of a number of decidedly unrealized
democracies that uses plurality voting -- yet avoids the
criticism of proportional representation nations like Israel
and Italy. A Reuters story recently reported, under the headline
above: "Voters recently turned out despite opposition attempts
to block the second of three days of nationwide municipal
elections. An alliance of three opposition parties enforced a
nationwide strike and at least five people have
died in a spate of bombings and violent clashes."

* Quebec: More Statistics about a Flawed System

CVD member Thomas Jones provides the following facts about
the 1998 Quebec National Assembly election, in which
plurality voting was used in 125 single member districts.

   - The highest district had 5.23 more votes than the
     lowest district. The highest winner had 7.54 more
     votes than the lowest winner.

   - 52 of 125 winners had less than half the votes in
     their districts.

   - 151 losers had more total votes than the lowest winner.
     88 losers had more votes than the lowest district vote total.

   - The highest loser had more votes than 81 of 125 winners.

* British Developments: Prime Minister Blair Shows Signs of
Support for PR

A February 18 article in the Financial Times reports that:
"Tony Blair has sanctioned the start of a campaign to secure a
proportional voting system for general elections, as part of
efforts to shore up Labour's increasingly fragile working
relationship with the Liberal Democrats.

"In a strategy endorsed by the prime minister but which could
split his party, Labour MPs who support electoral reform are to
put the case for radical change to activists and the wider
public, in advance of a referendum. The same MPs, with the
blessing of Mr Blair, are to speak out publicly in favour of the
government retaining its close links with the Liberal
Democrats.

"Mr Blair has declined to call for the ditching of the existing
first-past-the-post voting system, but Labour MPs who support
reform believe he will eventually back change. The prime
minister has been stung by the intense opposition from some
Labour MPs and trade unions to change.

"Last week he met five Blairite Labour MPs who support
reform. 'He is positive about reform. The message
was to get out and do the business, do the groundwork. It will
help him not just on electoral reform but also on
closer links with the Liberal Democrats, which he is getting
slagged off for,' one of the MPs present said."

"Mr Blair suggested May's Scottish parliament elections, which
will use a proportional voting system, will demonstrate the
merits of reform. The result in Scotland will almost certainly
lead to a power-sharing administration between Labour and the
Liberal Democrats.

"Labour MPs who support reform increasingly believe the
referendum should be held after the next general election, even
though that would breach the party's manifesto pledge to hold
it in this parliament."

* Report from the Electoral Reform Society

The Electoral Reform Society, long-time of proportional
representation in the United Kingdom, provided the following
summary of developments in the UK in early February:

House of Lords

The Government has published a white paper on stage 2 of its
reform of the Lords. The Government is setting up a Royal
Commission on House of Lords Reform to report in 2000.

Europe, Scotland and Wales

These three bills have now received the Royal assent and the
Scottish and Welsh elections will take place in early may. They
will use a two vote AMS (MMP style system) but they will use
two ballot papers rather than one. The European system has
also received its assent and all the preparations are now in
pace. the election will take place on the 10th of June.

London

The Government of London Bill has started going through the
Commons, this includes AMS for the assembly and
supplementary vote for the mayor. [NOTE: Supplementary vote
is a variation of instant runoff voting where all but the top two
candidates are eliminated simultaneously.]

Local Government

The McIntosh Commission or to give it is full name the
Commission on Local government and the Scottish Parliament,
has already recommended PR for Scottish local government
and is now looking at systems. You can find more information
on their web site: Http://www.lg-gov-commission.gov.uk/

A number of local authorities have also volunteered to have
elected Mayor's the first being the London borough of
Lewisham. There is some noise that the government may
change its mind about PR for local government in England and
Wales.

                              # # #

A Critical Assessment of New Labour's Constitutional Reforms
for Britain, By Thomas Lundberg

The Labour government in Britain has begun making a number
of potentially far-reaching constitutional reforms. The main
developments so far include legislation for the devolution of
power to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Greater
London (with a directly-elected mayor and assembly); reform
of the House of Lords; a proportional electoral method for the
election of the UK delegation to the European Parliament; and
a promised referendum on a more proportional electoral system
for the House of Commons. On the surface, these appear to be
almost revolutionary changes for one of the most conservative
(and centralized) constitutional orders in the democratic world,
although a closer examination reveals the retention of at least
some centralizing features, enough to warrant an assessment of
Prime Minister Tony Blair's true intentions.

The biggest challenge to centralization comes in the form of
devolution of power from London to some of Britain's regions.
While it will remain a unitary state, the United Kingdom will
take on the appearance of some federal systems, with elected
assemblies in place in Northern Ireland (1998), Scotland
(1999), Wales (1999), and Greater London (2000). These
assemblies will have varying degrees of power, but the
principle of centralized Westminster rule over all the regions of
Britain has been dealt a serious blow. It is likely that the level
of responsibilities assumed by each assembly will evolve, based
on demands by politicians and the public, and the legitimacy
conferred by direct election will make it hard for Westminster
to resist calls for greater autonomy.

Furthermore, in yet another break with the past, all four of
these assemblies will use electoral systems of proportional
representation (PR), instead of Britain's traditional plurality
("first-past-the-post") voting system. Northern Ireland's
assembly was elected via the single transferable vote system, in
which voters rank candidates in order of their preference. The
other assemblies will be elected using the additional member
system, based on the German model, and used in New Zealand
under the name "Mixed Member Proportional" or MMP. Here,
voters cast one vote for a constituency candidate, and one for a
political party. Around half of the assembly members are
elected by plurality in single member constituencies from the
voters' first votes, but the rest are elected from party lists in
such a way that each party's total delegation (constituency and
list-based added together) is proportional to the percentage of
the second votes cast for it. In other words, the list candidates
are used to compensate parties which fail to win enough
constituency seats, due to a lack of a geographically-
concentrated support.

It is likely that PR was chosen for the new assemblies to
ensure broad support for devolution. If plurality voting had
been chosen instead, it is likely that Labour, with its high
levels of support in Scotland and Wales, for example, would
win huge seat majorities in those assemblies on less than half
the popular vote. Because those two regions have four-party
political systems, and the support of smaller parties was
essential to give legitimacy to the radical changes proposed by
Labour, the use of PR (which would allow for representation of
all four parties) was essential.

Labour has also honored its 1997 election manifesto
commitment to use PR for Britain's delegation to the European
Parliament, a change from plurality voting that will be
introduced in time for this June's election. The House of Lords
tried to prevent this change, with the upper house's
Conservative party majority claiming that it did not oppose PR
in principle, only the use of "closed list" PR, in which parties
determine the list positions of their candidates, and voters are
not able to influence these rankings (and thus the chances for
successful election). Some other European Union countries use
"open list" PR, in which voters have some degree of influence
over the positions of individual candidates. Cynics pointed out
that the real reason for Conservative opposition to the
introduction of PR had nothing to do with the closed list nature
of the proposal, but rather the party's long-standing opposition
to PR in principle, fearing that this would be the thin edge of
the wedge pushing PR closer to reality for the House of
Commons.

Indeed, electoral reform of the lower house of Parliament, the
House of Commons, was the subject of the prime minister's
attention, and the 1998 Jenkins Commission inquiry into more
proportional alternatives to the current plurality system
recommended a radical new electoral system untested anywhere
in the world. Called "Alternative Vote Plus," this hybrid system
combines single member constituencies, in which the winning
candidate would need the support of a majority of voters [using
the alternative vote, known here as "instant runoff voting"],
with a small number of candidates elected from party lists in
clusters of single member constituencies. Voters would have
two votes; one for a single member constituency candidate, in
which voters would rank candidates in order of preference,
with votes being transferred from candidates with the lowest
amount of support if no candidate wins a majority of first
preferences. The second vote is for a party (with the
commission recommending "open list" conditions), with seats
to be allocated in such a way that parties which are
under-represented in regions of about 8-12 single member
constituencies would gain list MPs.

This proposal has received a mixed response by those who
favor electoral reform. Critics note that with only 15-20 per
cent of the House of Commons MPs to be elected from party
lists, there is no way to ensure the kind of proportionality
comparable to what is seen in the PR systems used in other
democracies. Therefore, the Jenkins proposal can be described
as semi-proportional. However, many academics (and some
politicians) welcome the introduction of any movement in the
direction of greater proportionality.......

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 T H E   C O D E   O F   H O N O R   F O R   R E F O R M   A C T I V I S T S

     Any group of reform activists that are thinking about a petition drive
to place a proposal on the ballot are to present their proposal beforehand
to all other reform activists that they know of. The time for debate and
negative comments is before the petition stage. Once the group makes its
final proposal and enters the petition stage, the debates and negative
comments by all reform activists is to cease.
    At this time each activist is to make an honest evaluation. If the
initiative will improve government then each activist is to find it in his
heart to support the initiative, even if it is not exactly what the
activist would like.

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   |                         Q U O T A T I O N                         |
   |  "Democracy is a beautiful thing,                                 |
   |       except that part about letting just any old yokel vote."    |
   |                            - Age 10                               |
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