Lord Jenkin's Proposals

[DEMOREP1 at aol.com]

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Monday, September 21, 1998 Published at 19:54 GMT 20:54 UK
    UK Politics: Talking Politics
    Voting reform: the plans

    Bill Bush, Head of Political Research at the BBC, explains how the
alternative vote system works.
    Well-informed speculation suggests that the Jenkins Commission will
recommend a voting system called "AV Plus"
    AV Plus is a hybrid of two separate voting methods. "AV" (Alternative
Vote) is a system of electing MPs for constituencies, the "Plus" is a
system of topping-up from a list to achieve something nearer
proportionality.

D- *something nearer* is a fraud when exact methods exist such that X
percentage of votes directly produces X percentage of the seats (or to be
totally exact, exactly X percentage of the voting power in the legislative
body).

    Casting a Vote
    Voters have two votes. The first, for the locally-elected MP, asks the
voter to rank the candidates in order of preference: i.e. 1, 2, 3, etc.
    The second, for the top-up list, asks the voter to vote for their
preferred party (if the party lists are 'closed').

D- Having closed lists is another fraud with party elites controling the names
on the ballots.

    To be elected in a constituency seat, a candidate needs over 50% of the
votes. If no-one gets enough first preference votes candidates with the
fewest votes are knocked out and their second preferences are
redistributed. This continues until one candidate reaches the 50%+1 winning
post.

D- This is the infamous so-called instant run-off (IRO) method with its well
known defect of being able to NOT choose a compromise candidate.  Example-
45 AC
40 BC
11 CB
  4 CA
C loses using IRO. B wins.
However, head to head C beats A 55 to 45 and C beats B 60 to 40.  The proper
method for a single winner is the Condorcet method that compares each pair of
candidates head to head. If one candidate wins all of his/her pairings he/she
is a Condorcet winner.   If there is no such candidate, then a tiebreaker can
be used.

    The second votes are then counted to give the level of support for each
party in a county or region. If a party has only managed to win a few
constituency seats, they get top-up seats to get their final total more in
line with their vote share.

D- The *more in line with* is a fraud. See the above.

    In theory, the party lists for the top-up seats could be open or closed.
    If open, then voters can pick between candidates from the same party,
rather than opting for a party choice. However if closed, the party has
complete control over the ranking. No-one expects the commission to
recommend open lists.

D- The elitist party leaderships will do anything to keep their corrupt power
in determining the candidates on the ballots.   I will estimate in advance
that the current circa 20 percent minority rule to elect a bare majority of
the members of the UK Parliament will go up to about 35 percent minority rule
with AV plus.