FU@# PLURALITY

[Blake Cretney]

On Sun, 08 Nov 1998 12:54:42   Daniel Davis wrote:
>
>    Here are the results of my fall election for a University Student Senate Seat
>
>
>    The district is one of the few single member ones, and comprises 5 on-campus
>residence halls (dormitories) of about 983 people.  On average each senate seat
>represents 1050 students.
>
>    Anti-Greek Party                46%     164 votes
>    Independent (Myself)    29%     104 votes
>    Greek Party                23%     83 votes
>
>    Total votes
>
>    I know that almost all supporters of the anti-greek party would choose myself
>second, without a doubt, since they hate the greek party.  I know that the greek
>party would either not choose anybody second, or choose me second because they
>hate the anti-greek party, and an independent is much less dangerous than their
>nemisis.
>
>    These elections use straight "illiterate" x marks the spot plurality.
>
>    Now the question at hand:::::::::::::::::::::::::::
>
>    Which system would have benefitted me the most?  The least (aside from the
>obvious)?  Which system would have been the fairest in outcomes?
>

I wonder if your premise is really true.  The core supporters of Greek or Anti-Greek
will certainly prefer you to the other side.  But many voters may vote for one of these
two sides without viewing everything in the Greek vs. Anti-Greek dichotomy.

However, I am going to assume your premise for analysis.  I have also conjectured an
even split in the second preference for the people who vote for you first.

164 A I G
52  I A G
52  I G A
83  G I A


A 380
I 455
G 218

	A	G	I
A	X	216	164
G	135	X	83
I	187	268	X

This means the pair-wise majorities, with margins are:
A>G 81
I>A 23
I>G 185
So, there is no contradiction, "I" wins.  The second preferences of
the I 1st voters don't actually matter as the "A" vs. "G" votes don't 
matter.

You also win under AV.  However, the Anti-Greeks could claim that
they would have won if they had less support.  If 22 people decided 
to vote "G A I" instead of "A I G", then "A" would win under AV.
You would still be the CW, however.

I tend to view the CW as giving the best government.  It certainly
seems likely that the Anti-Greek candidate will support Anti-Greek 
measures that are far more extreme than would be desired by the 
majority of the electorate of your district.

---
Blake


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