First Debate on DEMOREP1's 2-1-2 Example

[Rob Lanphier]

This is a good post.  I have some questions, though...

On Mon, 2 Dec 1996 donald at mich.com wrote:
> Dear DEMOREP1, I am willing to accept your Instant Run-off example for
> debate but I have some conditions.
> 
> Condition One: These five voters are experienced in three election methods
> - Plurality - Instant Run-off - Condorcet.
> 
> Condition Two: Before the election the voters are told which method is
> going to be used to crunch the results - and only that method can be used
> on the returns of that election.
> 
> Condition Three: There is to be three elections on one ballot - Plurality -
> Instant Run-off - Condorcet - as follows:
> 
>     Plurality       |        Instant Run-off     |        Condorcet
>    vote for one     |           1   2   3        |          1   2   3
>        A []         |        A []  []  []        |       A []  []  []
>        B []         |        B []  []  []        |       B []  []  []
>        M []         |        M []  []  []        |       M []  []  []
> 
> I say the results of these three elections will be as follows:
> 
>     Plurality       |        Instant Run-off     |        Condorcet
>        2 A          |            2 AM            |           2 A
>        2 B          |            2 BM            |           2 B
>        1 M          |            1 MB            |           1 M
> 
> The Instant Run-off results are the same as your example.

This is a fair and most likely accurate assumption.

> The results of the Condorcet election will be the same as the Plurality
> election. The reason for this is because EXPERIENCED voters in a Condorcet
> election will not make a second selection - because they know that the
> second selections will be used to help some candidate other than the
> candidate of their first choice.

Two questions:

1.  Are the voters aware of semi-accurate polling data (or in a genuine 5
person election, do they have a pretty good idea of who the others would 
rank on top)?

2.  What is the tie-breaker assumed to be in all cases (especially
Condorcet)?  If we are to assume experienced voters here, then they would
undoubtedly factor in the tie-breaker in an election so likely to produce
a tie.

Rob