<div dir="ltr">Chris: I agree with you that the importance of precinct summability is often exaggerated. If you tallied all results on election night, using two-way communication, this would fix the problem if you've received all ballots by election night (since you can post round-by-round results). That said, it's not useless, because lots of US states <i>don't</i> do that. The main issue is whether states will in practice actually adopt practices required for safe IRV elections. So far, they haven't.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Aug 11, 2024 at 11:45 AM robert bristow-johnson <<a href="mailto:rbj@audioimagination.com" target="_blank">rbj@audioimagination.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><br>
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> On 08/08/2024 2:23 PM EDT Chris Benham <<a href="mailto:cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au" target="_blank">cbenhamau@yahoo.com.au</a>> wrote:<br>
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> I've long regarded people running around with their hair on fire yelling about "precinct summability" to be simply a propaganda furphy against Hare RCV,<br>
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That's fine. You may regard us as such.<br>
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> the good single-winner method that currently has the most traction as a reform proposal.<br>
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That it currently has the most traction is agreed (if we leave out FPTP, of course). That it is "good" or "*the* good ... method" is not agreed to.<br>
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> Why is determining which candidate has the fewest top-preference votes inherently more problematic than determining which candidate has the most top-preference votes? <br>
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It's not. It's equally problematic. Considering only the top-preference votes, instead of considering the entire ballot (which effectively occurs *only* in the IRV final round) is the same mistake that FPTP makes.<br>
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The **entire purpose** of RCV is to consider voters' contingency choices when the candidate of their (first) choice cannot be elected. E.g.:<br>
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“You get to vote for your real favorite candidate as your first choice, and then you get a series of backup choices,” says Deb Otis, director of research and policy at FairVote, a nonpartisan organization which advocates for ranked-choice voting. “If your top choice is eliminated, your vote [goes to] your backup choice, and so your voice is still heard.”<br>
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It's a falsehood. We all know that. Anyone who marked their "real favorite candidate as [their] first choice" and that candidate loses in the final IRV round, that voter will never have their vote go to any backup choice and that voter's contingency vote will not be heard.<br>
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Most of the time it doesn't make any difference, the outcome of the election will remain unchanged even if those losers in the final round get to have their second or third-choice votes counted. But we know that, in two U.S. elections in the 21st century, it *did* make a difference. Those voters would have been better off not voting (as their first choice) for their favorite candidate and they would have been better off voting tactically.<br>
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> At each polling station you have observers representing the candidates. They all have cameras, phones and pocket calculators. I don't see any reason why there should be anything "opaque" about the process.<br>
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Doesn't matter if you have observers at each polling place observing if it's Hare RCV. The most we will learn at the polling places are the first-choice tallies. So then we will know how the IRV first round goes (or if there was an outright majority winner). But if there are additional rounds, it's opaque and without the redundancy necessary to double-check the government's round-by-round tabulation.<br>
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The part of the process where the voter inserts their ballot into the machine must be opaque in order to protect the secrecy of the vote of that voter. But at the end of the day, at that particular polling place, to have transparency we need the tallies (sufficient to sum with other polling places and determine who won the election) printed out at that polling place and displayed for all to see.<br>
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Now Venezuela does that (it's also FPTP). So those tallies were actually observed and recorded by entities that are not the Venezuelan government. Those tallies, BTW, show Maduro losing by a nearly 2 to 1 margin.<br>
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The problem is that the government displayed no breakdown of vote tallies nationwide. They just made up numbers that show Maduro winning and shown *nothing* else about how they came up with those numbers. If there was no tallies displayed at the polling places, no one would be the wiser.<br>
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But how they got to their nationwide totals *is* opaque. If they *had* shown a breakdown of the tallies from each city and jurisdiction inside the country, those tallies could be compared to the tallies that had already been observed and recorded *at* the polling places immediately after the polls closed.<br>
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> Here Venezuelan President Maduro speaks for himself (in Spanish with English subtitles):<br>
> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpHlR-CYSss&t=3734s" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpHlR-CYSss&t=3734s</a><br>
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> If you want to watch the rest of that long video, I suggest doing so at higher-than-normal speed.<br>
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It's horseshit, Chris. The Carter Center is much more trustworthy than the Maduro government. Trump speaks for himself, too. Does that make it anymore credible?<br>
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Like Trump (a dictator wannabee) Maduro uses hours-long speeches to bore us to death so that blatant falsehoods buried therein are obfuscated amidst the blather.<br>
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r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ <a href="mailto:rbj@audioimagination.com" target="_blank">rbj@audioimagination.com</a><br>
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"Imagination is more important than knowledge."<br>
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