<div dir="auto"><div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Sep 17, 2023, 11:12 AM Kristofer Munsterhjelm <<a href="mailto:km_elmet@t-online.de" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">km_elmet@t-online.de</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">On 2023-09-17 18:14, Colin Champion wrote:<br>
> Chris - as I understand it, there's no reason to expect Condorcet voting <br>
> to produce satisfactory results if applied seat-by-seat to <br>
> representative assemblies. Some voting theory texts have a disclaimer <br>
> near the beginning: "We here discuss the election of a single <br>
> office-holder (eg. a president); election of individual members to an <br>
> assembly brings in additional considerations" (which are never discussed).<br>
<br>
Plurality can be used as a rough semiproportional method that's <br>
proportional under strategy (SNTV). </blockquote></div></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Plurality elects the candidate with the highest likelihood of being random plurality ballot favorite.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">So how about electing the candidate with the greatest likelihood of being the random approval ballot winner RABW.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The probabilities can be found analytically by exponentiating Markov Transition Matrices ... or approximately by MonteCarlo.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The Random Approval Ballot Favorite probability distribution is democratically proportional like the random plurality favorite probability distribution ... but with less entropy ... i.e. greater expected consenus.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"> </div><div dir="auto"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">But bloc Condorcet isn't. I suspect <br>
that Condorcet failing to be at-large proportional when used for single <br>
member districts is related to this quirk in Plurality. In a way, <br>
Condorcet is too majoritarian.<br>
<br>
> At any rate, if a country is governed by a parliamentary assembly, <br>
> then the primary the aim of an election should be to produce an <br>
> effective government whose policies are as close as possible to the <br>
> consensus view of the electorate. This will not usually be achieved by <br>
> giving each constituency a representative who is close to its local <br>
> consensus.<br>
> I made a proposal of my own a couple of years ago: <br>
> <a href="http://lists.electorama.com/pipermail/election-methods-electorama.com/2021-October/003113.html" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">http://lists.electorama.com/pipermail/election-methods-electorama.com/2021-October/003113.html</a><br>
> My main concern was to avoid the minority governments which <br>
> generally arise when FPTP is replaced by less crude methods. As for <br>
> traction... I'm still its sole supporter.<br>
<br>
I think a ranked party list method with a centrist-favoring bias would <br>
work relatively well: to be what something like D'Hondt should have <br>
been, and favor consensus/centrist kingmakers instead of random minor <br>
parties or whatever party happens to get the most Plurality votes.<br>
<br>
But I might be coming from a different perspective: in Norway, minority <br>
governments are more common than not, and the legislature-executive <br>
balance of power is much more in favor of the legislature than is common <br>
elsewhere, but things generally work out. Using ranking and a <br>
centrist/consensus bias would reduce the need for thresholds and ad-hoc <br>
tweaks to Sainte-Laguë[1]; they wouldn't eliminate minority governments <br>
unless the bias were much harsher than I have in mind.<br>
<br>
-km<br>
<br>
[1] <br>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sainte-Lagu%C3%AB_method#Modified_Sainte-Lagu%C3%AB_method" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sainte-Lagu%C3%AB_method#Modified_Sainte-Lagu%C3%AB_method</a><br>
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</blockquote></div></div></div>