<div dir="auto">Continuing onward... let's talk about agenda setting first. <div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">An agenda is a complete ranking of the candidates ... so a good agenda is a good complete ranking of the candidates.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">But if we already have a good complete ranking of the candidates, then we're done ... just use that ranking as our finish order ... right?</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Well kinda!</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">In traditional use of SPE in Deliberative Assemblies the agenda order is set by wrangling,horse trading, and other highly political, exterior, non Universal Domain methods.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The best of these is in the context of alternatives to a status quo. For example, the participants are asked which of the alternatives they prefer to the status quo. The more participants that prefer any particular alternative, the more favorable position it gets to occupy on the agenda.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">In other words, the agenda is set by an Approval vote. Or if each participant rates the alternatives on a scale of one to ten, then those scores determine the agenda order.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">So ideally, SPE ballots should allow complete preference information along with additional information like grades, scores, or approval cutoffs: so the preference information can be used in the elimination final stage ... after the agenda has been established by use of the approval, score, or judgment information.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">But our challenge is to stay strictly within the "Universal Domain" meaning ordinal input only ... that is, pure unadorned RCV style ballots. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">So somehow we have to get a decent nominal order from the ordinal ballots without any input exterior to the Universal Domain. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Why not just use first place votes? </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The problem is vote splitting ... the same spoiler problem that is the raison de etre of voting reform in the first place ... the reason approval voting is used in traditional agenda setting ... the reason that brainstorming sessions suspend judgment until a later stage ... first the bulking before the cutting ... the processing stage is a refinement of the first approximation ballpark stage that is based on the more reliable direct majorrity comparison information.governing each elimination.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Why not use Borda Counts? </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The vote splitting would away, but at the expense of a more subtle distortion ... an unfair advantage to the candidate with the most clones ... just as votes splitting methods like Plurality disadvantage candidates with too many clones ... Borda is hard on candidates that have too few clones to prop up their Borda count.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">So these considerations suggest something between Borda and Plurality ... something called Implicit Approval.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">A candidate's implicit approval is the number of ballots on which the candidate is ranked above bottom (i.e. ranked ahead of at least one candidate), which is a kind of minimal standard of approval ... nut plenty good for agenda setting which is not supposed to be the final order ... but just a nominal "seed" order to keep the agenda deterministic and correlated with the questions of favorabie vs unfavorable, promising or not, strong or weak, etc.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">As we pointed out before, the agenda order makes no difference in the usual case ... whenever there is one candidate that is preferred in every head-head contest ... that candidate will never be eliminated, because agenda based eliminations are always done by majority vote of the participating voters ... unlike in the case of IRV, for example.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Still, it is important in public elections that the agendas be non random, decisive, etc and have as high a degree of correlation with the public will as possible without amounting to a full blown elaborate stand alone election method in its own right ... otherwise we could just use Ranked Pairs as an agenda setter.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">We need something simple like Approval ... and the closest thing to Approval in the Universal Domain is Implicit Approval.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The first place votes idea that we rejected for setting the agenda is perfectly adequate for breaking ties when two candidates have the same implicit Approval, especially if equal first rankings are allowed.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">There is a mild tension against both equal Top and equal Bottom usage in the UD domain because it creates a tradeoff between the need for unequal preference expression for use in the agenda processing (on the one hand) and the need to use equal whole Top/ Bottom approval/ disapproval counts for clone free agenda setting (on the other hand).</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">That tension is much weaker ... practically non existant really, at the Bottom ... which is why we reserve the equal Top count for tipping the balance in the relatively rare cases where candidates' Bottom counts might be identical (resulting in implicit approval ties).</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The only other UD agenda setting method that we have found to be both simple and adequate is through the Max Pairwise Support scores.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The support score for one candidate relative to another is information that is essential anyway for the majority eliminations that are central to the agenda processing ... so why not take advantage of that information in the agenda setting stage?</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The pairwise support score of candidate X relative to candidate Y is the number of ballots on which candidate X is ranked ahead of candidate Y. So X's agenda score is the highest of these scores against any opponent Y. X's position on the agenda is determined by her best support relative to or in comparison with the candidate that "let her win" the most votes, so to speak.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">You could say that the candidate whose Max Pairwise Support is minimal is kind of similar to the candidate with the smallest Implicit Approval ... and it turns out that they are indeed the same candidate in our crucial examples ... where they are the first candidate to be eliminated.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Example 1</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">48 C</div><div dir="auto">28 A>B</div><div dir="auto">24 B (sincere is B>A)</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The Implicit Approvals of A, B, and C are respectively 28, 52, and 48 ... so A has the smallest IA.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The respective MaxPS values are also 28, 52, and 48.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">So the elimination agenda order (from least to most favorable) is A C B.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">All of our agenda processing methods eliminate A first because C is preferred over A on 48 ballots while A is preferred over C on only 28 ballots. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Our (new) methods stop there because (in the advanced versions) no candidate is preferred over both A and C ... and (in the simplest version) only the candidate with the strongest victory over the first eliminated candidate is kept.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The old SPE method goes on to eliminate C leaving B as winner ... which is unfortunate, because in this example, this rewards B for an insincere truncation ... having thrown the sincere CW (namely A) under the bus.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">It's not just old SPE that fails here ... all of the classical Condorcet methods like Ranked Pairs, CSSD. MjnMax, etc fail ..</div><div dir="auto"> because they have no way of knowing when to stop going around the artificial cycle created by the insincere truncation of A by the B faction!</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">That's enough for today ...</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">To be continued ...</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, Mar 24, 2023, 10:38 AM Forest Simmons <<a href="mailto:forest.simmons21@gmail.com">forest.simmons21@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Mar 23, 2023, 10:07 PM Forest Simmons <<a href="mailto:forest.simmons21@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">forest.simmons21@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">Calisthenics tutorials make extensive use of "progressions", so that almost anybody with enough patience can progress by degrees over time from a leg assisted partial range "Australian Pullup" to a full range of motion standard form pullup.<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">That's what we are trying to do with our "Pathways to Success" thread ... to make a gradual progression from relatively primitive to more solidly advanced methods.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">This progression is a progression of agenda based methods ... with Sequential Pairwise Elimination SPE right in the middle of it.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Of all the single winner methods that have been used for centuries, SPE is the most solid, respectable, versatile, and unknown to the public at large ... though well known to organizations that convene Deliberative Assemblies goverened by Robert's Rules of Order.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">We have two things to consider... 1. How to set a good agenda ... and 2. How to process the agenda to extract a winner from it.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The agenda plays the same role that seeding does in a tournament. It gives a nominal order that serves more as a tie breaking order than anything else. In the usual case (when rock paper Scissors ties are non existent), the agenda order has no effect on the outcome. The most important thing about the agenda is that it be based on some deterministic statistic correlated with democratic support and not easily distorted by proliferation of clones among the candidates.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The agenda processing must be based on the majority rule principle, and must have built in safeguards against strategical manipulation by unscrupulous influencers ... the kinds of manipulations that create the rare, but not rare enough, cycles that can make the outcome depend on the agenda order.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family:sans-serif">We will touch on these aspects in our examples.</span><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">These concerns are not limited to agenda based methods ... but good agenda based methods (like the ones in our progression) deal with them more transparently and effectively than any other deterministic, single winner </div></div></blockquote></div></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I should have included Universal Domain in this qualification ... comparing non UD methods like Majority Judgment or Approval Sorted Margins with the methods in our progression is like comparing Steriod Jacked Body Builders with Natties.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><div dir="auto">methods that we know of ... and we have carefully compared the methods in our progression with the realistic extant alternatives ... as well as many others.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">To be continued ...</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"> </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div>
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