<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><div><span></span></div><div><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><div></div><div><br><br></div><div><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Tory
leader contest as the Monty Hall problem (three door problem).</span></div><div><div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold""> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">The
three door problem (associated with the compere Monty Hall)
presents a
contestant with three doors. One door hides a car and two doors
each hide a
goat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">The
contestant chooses one door, left closed, and the compere opens
another door,
revealing a goat. The contestant knows the car is behind the
door he has
chosen, or the other door still closed. Does he stick with his
initial choice,
or choose instead the other unopened door?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">The
Tory leader contest for one of three candidates, Rishi Sunak,
Boris Johnson,
Penny Mordaunt. The future leadership abilities of the three
candidates are
unknowns, like the three blank doors.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">Sticking
with the former deposed leader, Boris Johnson, is equivalent to
not changing
ones choice of door, leaving the contestant with a one in three
chance of
winning the prize of best leader.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">The
compere opens another door, to reveal either Sunak or Modaunt –
it doesn’t
matter which, because, like the blank doors, they are both
unknown leaders. If
the contestant changes choice of door, he will get either a
Sunak or Mordaunt
door. Even tho we don’t know which is the prize leader, there is a
two thirds
probability of winning that prize, compared to a one third
probability of
prize-winning, by sticking with a choice of the Johnson door.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">This
three doors rigmarole is perhaps not quite the same as saying,
if you choose
either Sunak or Mordaunt, instead of Johnson, you are likely to
have a 2/3 to
1/3 probability of success.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">That
is because sticking with the same choice, Johnson, does not
improve the one
third probability of success. Whereas changing to one of the
others, without
knowing or asserting their relative merits, improves the
probability, of
successful choice of leader, to 2/3.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold""> Regards,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.0pt;font-family:"Arial Rounded MT
Bold"">Richard Lung.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><a href="https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/democracyscience" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">https://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/democracyscience</a></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br></p>
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