<html><head></head><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida Grande, sans-serif;font-size:13px"><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55145"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55146">Hi Juho,</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55362"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55363"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55364"></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55365"><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55366"><div style="font-family: HelveticaNeue, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55367"><div dir="ltr" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55368"><font size="2" face="Arial" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55369"><hr size="1" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55370"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55371">De :</b> Juho Laatu <juho.laatu@gmail.com><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55372"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55373">À :</b> Election Methods <election-methods@lists.electorama.com> <br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55374"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55375">Envoyé le :</b> Jeudi 4 mai 2017 17h02<br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55376"><b id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55377">Objet :</b> Re: [EM] Ordering defeats in Minimax<br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55378"></font></div><div dir="ltr" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55379"><font size="2" face="Arial" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55380"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55381"></font></div></div></div></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55150"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55151">>Also this mail is a late rely. This time I had some additional problems since </font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55152"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55153">>I didn't receive this mail in my unbox at all. I found it in the electorama </font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55154"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55155">>mail archives. The mail traffic between electorama and me doesn't always work</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55156"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55157">>perfectly.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55158"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55159"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55160"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55161"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55162">Ok, I will be sure to copy you. I don't receive all the traffic either.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55163"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55164"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55165"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55166"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55167">>I already answered Kristofer's question once, but I was maybe not as clear as</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55168"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55169">>I should have been. I agree that Plurality can be classified as a criterion</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55170"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55171">>that is intended to be a "natural behaviour" criterion. I used term</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55172"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55173">>"heuristic", that os close to "intended to be a natural behaviour". Plurality</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55174"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55175">>is however often linked with winning votes, that I consider to be a very</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55176"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55177">>"strategic behaviour" related comparison method.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55178"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55179"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55180"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55181"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55182">Well, Plurality is "linked" to WV only because it creates a contrast with </font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55183"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55184">margins. If you were comparing margins to IRV or to Bucklin one would still</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55185"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55186">bring up Plurality.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55187"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55188"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55189"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55190"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55191">>>Sure, I would rather criticize how margins addresses this than the fact</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55192"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55193">>>that it tries to address it. IRV does this, for instance: You can rank the</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55194"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55195">>>worse frontrunner in a sincere way and you know that it won't hurt you. In</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55196"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55197">>>margins we "want" you to rank the worse frontrunner, but it's not expected</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55198"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55199">>>to be of any use to you, and it can hurt the better frontrunner by making</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55200"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55201">>>"worse" look like your compromise choice.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55202"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55203">></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55204"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55205">>Yes, but what is the probability of hurting one's targets by ranking</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55206"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55207">>numerous candidates in a Condorcet election with a bunch of potential winners</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55208"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55209">>and few additional candidates that are unlikely to win? And what are the</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55210"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55211">>benefits of ranking all the potential winners?</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55212"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55213"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55214"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55215"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55216">It's not whether they are ranked (margins will essentially force me to rank</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55217"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55218">them, I think), it's whether I decide to rank them sincerely. I think the</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55219"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55220">specific questions the voter might ask themselves are fairly clear.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55221"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55222"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55223"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55224"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55225">Margins gives me the most heartburn when I consider how to rank the worst</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55226"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55227">of the potential winners relative to the "additional" candidates who are</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55228"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55229">"unlikely" to win and who may well be unqualified to hold the office. As I</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55230"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55231">wrote above, there is no realistic gain for me to indicate that the worst</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55232"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55233">frontrunner is better than anybody, and there could be a cost. The odds of</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55234"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55235">the latter? I don't know, but I'm comparing "something" to a 0% chance, </font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55236"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55237">and that could certainly allow me to make a decision.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55238"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55239"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55240"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55241"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55242">(It's possible that people like me raise that 0% to something higher.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55243"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55244">You should hope that doesn't happen. But yes, it would force me to </font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55245"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55246">think further about my strategy.)</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55247"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55248"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55249"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55250"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55251">>Voting about things vs. persons is about the same. Condorcet is a good</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55252"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55253">>method if one wants to elect a good compromise winner. In a small</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55254"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55255">>community where people think that they know beforehand how others will</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55256"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55257">>vote, and where the party leaders and strategists possibly can force the</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55258"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55259">>voters to vote as told, strategic problems are more likely to occur than</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55260"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55261">>in large public elections with independent voters.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55262"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55263"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55264"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55265"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55266">We have elections because we can't just invite all the voters to a</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55267"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55268">conference. The voters fill out a ballot and hope that the method will be</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55269"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55270">a good steward of their interests. Legislators usually don't use election</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55271"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55272">methods. I would say essentially they figure out among themselves what</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55273"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55274">the outcome likely must be and then "elect" it, typically by a majority</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55275"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55276">vote. If voters could do that directly I think that would be the ideal</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55277"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55278">situation, as far as minimizing the need for strategy.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55279"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55280"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55281"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55282"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55283">I'm not sure if you thought I was talking about a legislature using</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55284"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55285">Condorcet. What I was saying is that I don't think the behavior of a</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55286"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55287">legislature would be emulated well by, for example, picking any arbitrary</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55288"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55289">option from the top cycle. Some of those options may not be plausible</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55290"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55291">outcomes, despite what the pairwise matrix says.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55292"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55293"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55294"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55295"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55296">>Yes, Plurality's reference to first preferences is not good. If one </font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55297"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55298">>wants to say something more generic that is not tied to first</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55299"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55300">>preference votes, one should reformulate the criterion. The criterion</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55301"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55302">>would not be as sexy that way. Also the use of implicit approval should</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55303"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55304">>be made clearer, if the intention is to say something about voters that</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55305"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55306">>assume it, or a method that makes some use of it.</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55307"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55308"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55309"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55310"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55311">One idea is that Plurality approximately says that if candidate X wins</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55312"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55313">then there should be some way to place approval cutoffs within the</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55314"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55315">rankings such that X is the approval winner. (First preferences come</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55316"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55317">into play because it's assumed no one would disapprove those.)</font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55318"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55319"><br id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55320"></font></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_54693"></div><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55321"><font size="3" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55322">Kevin</font></div><div dir="ltr" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1494082667930_55323"><br></div></div></body></html>