<div dir="ltr"><br><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">2016-09-07 8:17 GMT-04:00 C.Benham <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:cbenham@adam.com.au" target="_blank">cbenham@adam.com.au</a>></span>:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
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<div>3: A</div>
<div>20: A>B</div>
<div>25: B>A</div>
<div>3: B</div>
<div>20: C>B</div>
</span><div>29: C<br>
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C > B 49-48, C > A 49-48, B > A 48-23.<br>
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Top Ratings scores: C 49, B 28, A 23<br>
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Approval scores: B 68, C 49, A 48.<span class=""><br>
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On 9/7/2016 7:09 AM, Jameson Quinn wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite">IBIFA elects C. U/P elects B. It's clear
to me that B is better. The 3 A-only voters are likely
attempting a chicken strategy.</blockquote>
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C: C is the clearly voted Condorcet winner</div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>But not the majority Condorcet winner. I regard majority Condorcet as something any good voting system should tend to respect, but non-majority Condorcet as only a weak signal.</div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"><div> and by far the most
top-rated candidate.</div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Whoops... I'm sorry. Those were the averages over a large number of polls, but then a week before the election, A had a heart attack. The actual scores, with 3 ballots still to count from A's former stronghold precinct, are:</div><div><br></div><div>48: B</div><div>49: C</div><div><br></div><div>I guess C wasn't so dominant in top-ratings after all. Once we count those last three ballots, we'll have a clear winner here, and there's every chance it could be B.</div><div> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"><div> The suggestion that "B is better" because of<br>
some guess that 3 truncators are "likely" attempting some strategy
is absurd.<br></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>No, B is better because B has majority approval where C is rejected by a majority. The argument about likely truncation is merely how IBIFA went wrong, not how U/P got it right.</div><div> </div><div>...Again, I don't regard this as a knockdown argument against IBIFA. It's only one scenario; a roughly plausible one, but not particularly likely. I think we should probably drop this. But I do think it demonstrates pretty conclusively that IBIFA at least isn't strictly dominant. After all, as long as we're making up arbitrary scenarios, we can arbitrarily assume that the 3 A voters are in fact attempting strategy. Punishing strategy might not be the worst thing in the world, but rather than punishing 48 voters for the strategy of 3, it would be better to ignore the 3.</div><div><br></div><div>I'll write a broader response in a minute.</div></div></div></div>