<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">2011/10/31 David L Wetzell <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:wetzelld@gmail.com">wetzelld@gmail.com</a>></span><br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">
<br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div class="im">On Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 4:05 PM, Jameson Quinn <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jameson.quinn@gmail.com" target="_blank">jameson.quinn@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<br><div class="gmail_quote"><div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="gmail_quote"><div>
strategic incentives, </div>
</div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>2. Whether one ranks a second or third choice could only back fire if there was a close race between your first choice and one of your other choices for being the third place candidate in the first stage. This isn't likely and even then, it's safe to say that the third/fourth place candidate in the first stage has a less than 1/3rd chance to be the winner in the second stage. </div>
</div></blockquote><div><br></div></div><div>You are arguing that the costs of adding preferences are probably nil. But essentially the same argument applies to the benefits.</div></div></blockquote><div><br></div></div>
<div>dlw: I'm arguing that the odds of ranking two or three candidates having unintended consequences against one's first preference are probably nil. The benefit of increasing the chances that one of one's top two or three preferences are among the three finalists and the winner is similarly small, but no where near nil. The odds are always long in most elections, but the benefit-side is at least 3 times as great as the cost-side. </div>
<div class="im">
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div class="gmail_quote"><div><div><br></div><div><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div class="gmail_quote"><div>and LNH. </div></div></blockquote><div>3. It's no longer 100%, but it's up there. Similarly, there'd still be a chance of non-monotonicity, but it'd be relatively low and thereby unlikely enough not to affect voters strategies dysfunctionally. </div>
</div></blockquote><div><br></div></div><div>LNH matters most in a Burlington-like scenario, where it arguably kept the Republican from winning --- the plurality winner and Condorcet loser among the three frontrunners there. That is, by reassuring the Democrats that it couldn't hurt them to second-rank the Progressive, it prevented a chicken dilemma. This is exactly the situation when the almost-LNH of your system breaks down. </div>
</div></blockquote><div><br></div></div><div>dlw: I beg to differ. My approach uses the first stage to reduce the number of candidates to 3. In Burlington, those three would have been the Dems, Progs and Pubs so the LNH would still be in place in the second stage. </div>
</div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Hmmm.... I could certainly counter that the Dems could theoretically third-rank a Dem clone or a turkey candidate in order to push the Prog out of the top three. The turkey is pretty implausible, but I could imagine it becoming the norm to run two clones, as in early presidential elections when VP was not a separate election.</div>
<div><br></div><div>But anyway, you're right, the problem is not as bad as I'd thought.</div><div><br></div><div>So I guess I'll accept your proposal in the category of systems like IRV - systems I support as better than plurality but don't actively promote because there are better options.</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;"><div class="gmail_quote"><div class="im"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div><br></div>
<div>
Admirable response. I'd have to agree... but of course, I'd guess that >2/3 of that will be <i>me</i> convincing <i>you</i>. :)</div></blockquote></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>I revise that estimate to >1/2 :)</div>
<div><br></div><div>Jameson</div></div>