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<BR>
<BR>
(I emphasize the obvious fact that some of the most useful and helpful participants in this mailing list have been people who reside<BR>
in countries other than the one that I reside in. The project that I'm proposing is polling for the U.S. presidential election of 2012)<BR>
<BR>
I've briefly mentioned this idea in a previous post.<BR>
<BR>
I suggest that all here who want a better voting system for the U.S., and who reside in the U.S., so that they can conduct polling here,<BR>
work together on the following project:<BR>
<BR>
All of us, in our own counties &/or cities, conduct a public poll. We can do that polling in places such as public<BR>
plazas, etc.<BR>
<BR>
The poll consists of a rank-ballot, of the candidates in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.<BR>
<BR>
The reason why I suggest polling in person, in public places, is to avoid the ballot-stuffing possible in Internet voting, and<BR>
to, avoid possible selection biases on the Internet.<BR>
<BR>
Of course, one should only do one day's session of polling, because, if one polls for several days, it will be difficult to<BR>
recognize people who have already voted.<BR>
<BR>
Each poll-conductor, after his/her polling session, will post his/her rankings to the EM mailing list. (We'll know what the<BR>
names of the polling volulnteers are, so only their rankings will be counted).<BR>
<BR>
When every volunteer has done his/her polling session, and all of their ballots have been posted at EM, anyone, including<BR>
me, can count the ballots to find a CW.<BR>
<BR>
But, instead of just counting the raw ballots, I suggest weighting them according to the number of ballots in each local poll, and the<BR>
population of the U.S. region in which that particluar local poll was conducted.<BR>
<BR>
Here's how I'll do that (unless someone has a better suggestion):<BR>
<BR>
On a U.S. map (conic projection or locally-centered azimuthal equidistant), I'll draw a line between each pair of<BR>
neighboring polling cities. Then I'll draw the perpendicular bisector of that line.<BR>
<BR>
The set of perpendicular bisectors, together, will form a set of irregular polygons. I'll refer to those irregular polygons as<BR>
"regions".<BR>
<BR>
For each local poll, each of its ballots will be weighted by multiplying it by the the population of the region in which that local<BR>
poll is conducted, divided by the number of ballots in that local poll.<BR>
<BR>
How to find the population of a region? <BR>
<BR>
Of course if a state is entirely in that region, then its population is simply added into the region's population.<BR>
<BR>
What if a state is partly in that region?<BR>
<BR>
Sum the population of the major cities in that region, and add that sum into the region's population.<BR>
<BR>
Assume that the state's population outside the major cities is uniformly-distributed.<BR>
<BR>
Determine the area of that state that is in the region.<BR>
<BR>
Multiply that area by the state's population density (adjusted by subtracting the populations of the major cities<BR>
that have already been added in)<BR>
<BR>
Add, into the region's population, the result of that multiplication.<BR>
<BR>
How to determin the area of a state that's in the region?<BR>
<BR>
Unless someone has a better suggestion, I'll do as follows:<BR>
<BR>
I'll use the method of transects, using, as the numerical integration method, either Simpson's rule, or another<BR>
closed Newton-Cotes formula.<BR>
<BR>
In the method of transects, a line is drawn across the area to be measured, more or less through the region's center. <BR>
The area's width, measured perpendicular to that line, are measured at regular intervals along the line. My measuring<BR>
interval will be the millilmeter marks on a ruler. The Newton-Cotes forumulas, including Simpson's rule, use regularly-spaced interval-divisions,<BR>
such as those on a ruler. Such forumulas give an area estimate.<BR>
<BR>
Of course, the area-measurements needn't be exact, because the overall project will involve approximating assumptions less accurate than<BR>
the area-determinations.<BR>
<BR>
Anyway, thereby will be gotten an estimate of how the ballots should be weighted, to simulate a national vote.<BR>
<BR>
Using the weighted ballots, we find the Condorcet winner. That candidate has a win. We announce that CW to<BR>
various small parties, alternative candidates, political organizations, and progressive media (or of course any media you want to announce it to).<BR>
<BR>
These people and organizations can make the CW known around the country, if they want to. Looking it it from the point of view of<BR>
a Progressive, I point out that, if the CW is a Progressive candidate, then the everyone who prefers a Progressive to the<BR>
Democrats will know that they can probably safely vote for that Progressive CW, because s/he has a win, even in Plurality.<BR>
<BR>
At least, to the extent that voters and candidates are distributed on a one-dimensional political spectrum, the CW can win in Plurality<BR>
if everyone to one side of hir votes for hir.<BR>
<BR>
Mike Ossipoff<BR>
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