<div> From: Abd ul-Rahman Lomax <abd@lomaxdesign.com><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
></font>As I see it, without doing a rigorous analysis -- far from it! --<tt><br>
></tt>the contribution to each fund by each voter would rationally be their <tt><br>
></tt>utility for that fund's candidate winning, should they wish to share<tt><br>
><tt>the burden of their own caucus. The tragedy of the commons <br>
>could apply to this.</tt></tt></div>
<div> <font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
More specifically, their max contribution would be equal to the difference in utility<br>
between the option in question and the expected outcome of the election.<br>
<br>
There is however still a negotiation step:<br>
<br>
A: 100, B: 80, C: 20<br>
These people need the per voter payout to exceed $20 for them to shift from A to B<br>
<br>
A: 0, B: 80, C: 20<br>
Each of these people would be willing to contribute $80 to shift the winner to B from A<br>
<br>
(Actually, since they get their share of the payout, they will actually be willing to pay $145<br>
each. If B wins, they lose $145 but then get a payout share of $65 meaning that a B win<br>
costs them $80. I will ignore this effect as it makes it more complex. It is also a free<br>
rider inducing effect though).<br>
<br>
Assuming 100 voters, there is 80*45 = $3600 available for bids to shift the result to B.<br>
<br>
The total effective payout to the first faction needs to be $20*55 = $1100. <br>
<br>
At what point should the first faction switch? The second faction won't pay more than $80 each<br>
but that represents more than 3 times as much as the minimum the first faction will accept.<br>
<br>
This is where negotiation may be necessary. Also, for negotiation, accurate knowledge of <br>
the potential outcomes are necessary. Where there are more than 3 options, it may not <br>
be clear which options have a chance of winning and also how much they are valued by the<br>
other factions.<br>
<br>
></font>There is no possibility for betrayal in this -- except, of course, <tt><br>
</tt><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">> </font>that corrupt trustees could abscond with the funds, but ordinary <tt><tt><br>
>escrow could be used for the funds.</tt></tt><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
<br>
There are some free rider issues with the proposal. It is in the interests of each of the<br>
members of the first group not to bid and hope that enough others bid. The question is if<br>
the fa system could handle that. On each level of the chain, people would be known and<br>
it may be hard to pull out. At the leaf levels, your proxy might ring you up to remind you<br>
to bid (and point out that if he doesn't get 80% of his clients to bid, he will make his<br>
proxy look bad). <br>
<br>
Also, both sides suffer from free rider problems. There will be members of the first faction <br>
who switch at $20 and members of the second faction who won't bid enough. Perhaps,<br>
the 2 effects would cancel.<br>
<br>
Tabarrok proposed what he called dominant insurance contracts. This may have applications<br>
here. A betting market also achieves the above more directly. Even without using the market<br>
itself to select the winner, trading on the market should make every voter indifferent to the<br>
outcome.<br>
<br>
<br>
</font></div>
<div style="clear: both;">Raphfrk<br>
--------------------<br>
Interesting site<br>
"what if anyone could modify the laws"<br>
<br>
www.wikocracy.com</div>
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