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<TITLE>0-info approval voting, repeated polling, and adjusting priors</TITLE>
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<DIV id=idOWAReplyText39910 dir=ltr>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Thanks to one and all (in
both private and public communications) for the creative small group
ideas,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jobst asked about repeated approval polling
ideas that might converge.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here's an approach that I would like
to see explored more:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>Any method (like DFC) for constructing
a lottery from ballots with approval cutoffs could be iterated as
follows.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>The voter indicated approval cutoffs could
be considered as nominal or tentative cutoffs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>After the lottery is constructed, new
cutoffs could be determined from the lottery probabilities.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>At each successive stage we would base the
new lottery calculation on a weighted average of all the old cutoffs. In
other words, the cutoff on each ballot is adjusted slightly towards the
most recent lottery expected value before calculating the new lottery
probabilities.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>If the cutoff values converge, then the
lotteries converge to the winning lottery.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr><FONT face=Arial size=2>If folks are leery of lotteries, then one
last approval poll based on the limiting lottery probabilities would determine
the winner.</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>Forest<BR></DIV>
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