<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><HTML><FONT SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">James you wrote:<BR>
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>I know it is common in modelling exercises to assume that all electors vote "the<BR>
>party ticket", but that is not what a surprising number of real electors do in real >elections. I have looked only at the "ballot papers" for the Meath constituency of the >2002 Dáil Éireann STV-PR election, but the voting patterns have some major >lessons for party managers - and voting system modellers.<BR>
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>There were 14 candidates for 5 seats and some 64,00 voters. The two largest<BR>
>parties (FF and FG) both put up 3 candidates; all the other parties put up only 1; >there were also some non-party independents. FF received the most first >preferences. About half of those first preferences went to one candidate. But of >those who voted "1" for that candidate, only 44% voted "1", "2", "3" for FF's three >candidates. 35% of those voters were "lost" at the second preference and a further >21% were lost at the third preference. Of course, many of those voters "came back" >to FF at a subsequent preference, but it does show that the "party ticket" is a gross<BR>
>over-simplification as a model for real voter behaviour.<BR>
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I reply:<BR>
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In some political cultures there is a greater tendency to vote the party ticket than others. I have just been looking at the transfer patterns for the Bass division of the Tasmanian House of Assembly for the 2002 state election for the 3 largest parties. For the Labor party on each transfer of surplus/ elimination of a candidate between 83 and 90% of the votes transferred to other Labor candidates. For the Green party between 87 and 91% of votes transferred to continuing candidates of the same party. For the Liberal party the figure was 90- 96%.<BR>
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http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/house.htm<BR>
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Also in Australian Senate elections with "above" and "below" the line voting you can sometimes find that over 99% of a candidate's surplus transfers to the next candidate of the same party.<BR>
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http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1993/vic-1993.txt<BR>
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David Gamble<BR>
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