[EM] Open letter to STAR voting promoters
Michael Ossipoff
email9648742 at gmail.com
Tue Jun 4 14:06:06 PDT 2024
In fact, some of us suggested to Richie allowing equal-ranking, each vote
counted whole, & he immediately refused it.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:51 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742 at gmail.com>
wrote:
> Presumably they’ll consult FairVote, unless they’ve already received
> FairVote’s advice.
>
> Richie was always very adamant about refusing any mitigation of IRV’s
> strategic trainwreck.
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 13:33 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 09:11 Richard, the VoteFair guy <
>> electionmethods at votefair.org> wrote:
>>
>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact
>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
>>>
>>> YES
>>>
>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
>>>
>>> It avoids this "counting detail" by not mentioning anything about it.
>>
>>
>>
>> If that’s true, then it’s evasive & doesn’t offer or guarantee shit.
>>
>> Vote no on RCV in Oregon & Nevada.
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Richard Fobes
>>> the VoteFair guy
>>>
>>>
>>> On 6/4/2024 4:53 AM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:
>>> > VoteFair Guy:
>>> >
>>> > Are you saying that the IRV that the November referendum would enact
>>> > allows & counts equal ranking of several candidates.
>>> >
>>> > That’s a yes or no question.
>>> >
>>> > Yes or no?
>>> >
>>> > …&, if it’s “Yes”, then how does it count that equal ranking?
>>> >
>>> > Does every one of your top-ranked candidates get a point (“vote”) from
>>> > your ballot, or does each of them get a useless little fraction of a
>>> > vote divided among them? …You know, split-vote in a method that you
>>> say
>>> > doesn’t have a split-vote problem.
>>> >
>>> > An no, don’t embark on some long evasion or preface. I doubt that
>>> people
>>> > will be willing to search for your answer in a long mass of
>>> > meaning-mystery text.
>>> >
>>> > The reason I ask is, you’ve been promoting the referendum as what it
>>> > would be if were something different from what it is.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > On Mon, Jun 3, 2024 at 17:41 Richard, the VoteFair guy
>>> > <electionmethods at votefair.org <mailto:electionmethods at votefair.org>>
>>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > Below the dotted line is the beginning of my open letter to STAR
>>> voting
>>> > promoters.
>>> >
>>> > Here's some background info for the benefit of election-method
>>> forum
>>> > readers:
>>> >
>>> > In November, throughout Oregon, Oregon voters will vote to approve
>>> or
>>> > defeat a referendum that adopts ranked choice voting for electing
>>> > Oregon
>>> > governors and Oregon members of Congress (and the Oregon secretary
>>> of
>>> > state). This referendum was passed by the Oregon state
>>> legislature!
>>> > This is huge! All other states that have adopted ranked choice
>>> voting
>>> > have needed to gather signatures to get their initiatives on their
>>> > state's ballots.
>>> >
>>> > Here's the full text of the referendum:
>>> >
>>> >
>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
>>> <
>>> https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023R1/Downloads/MeasureDocument/HB2004/Enrolled
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > The vote-counting details begin on page 2 in Section 4.
>>> Importantly
>>> > the
>>> > words do not mention anything about "overvotes." Also importantly
>>> it's
>>> > well-worded so the counting details can be refined in the future.
>>> Also
>>> > it gives explicit permission to later adopt the single-transferable
>>> > vote
>>> > (STV) for electing city-council members (which Portland recently
>>> > adopted) or for electing Oregon state legislators.
>>> >
>>> > Note: The following "open letter" is long because election-method
>>> > reform is not a simple topic, and numerous misunderstandings are
>>> > involved.
>>> >
>>> > ........................
>>> >
>>> > Here's my open letter to STAR voting promoters:
>>> >
>>> > The recent defeat of STAR voting in Eugene triggered a
>>> conversation on
>>> > the r/EndFPTP subreddit in which the comments from you, the
>>> > promoters of
>>> > STAR voting, reveal some misunderstandings.
>>> >
>>> > These misunderstandings easily could lead to expensive or
>>> embarrassing
>>> > mistakes regarding support for, or opposition against, the upcoming
>>> > statewide Oregon November referendum that will adopt ranked choice
>>> > voting for some Oregon elections.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > I'll start with areas where you, the STAR voting promoters, have
>>> > correctly identified relevant information.
>>> >
>>> > * Yes, the FairVote organization has a long history of promoting
>>> > misrepresentations.
>>> >
>>> > * Yes, (as far as I know) the FairVote organization was a big
>>> source of
>>> > money that paid for "vote-no" postal flyers mailed to Eugene
>>> voters.
>>> >
>>> > * Yes, those flyers helped defeat the STAR voting initiative.
>>> >
>>> > * Yes, it's likely that FairVote helped pay for "opposition"
>>> arguments
>>> > in the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet, which was mailed to every Eugene
>>> voter.
>>> >
>>> > * Yes, those statements of opposition in the voter's pamphlet
>>> helped
>>> > defeat the STAR voting initiative.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's the link to the Eugene Voter's Pamphlet:
>>> >
>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet
>>> <
>>> https://www.eugene-or.gov/DocumentCenter/View/74017/0524-Voters-Pamphlet>
>>> )
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > However, I get the impression you, the promoters of STAR voting,
>>> are
>>> > overlooking the most important issues that account for why STAR
>>> voting
>>> > was defeated.
>>> >
>>> > Here are the issues I suggest you re-consider more carefully.
>>> >
>>> > * You seem to believe the FairVote organization is your enemy,
>>> without
>>> > understanding they are basically just supplying money to the
>>> huge(!)
>>> > number of Oregon voters who understand that ranked choice ballots
>>> are
>>> > much better than STAR ballots.
>>> >
>>> > * Opposition statements in the voter's pamphlet pointed out the
>>> > unfairness of score voting during the first step of STAR counting,
>>> when
>>> > a majority-supported candidate can fail to reach the runoff
>>> round. Yet
>>> > your rebuttals about majority support focused on the top-two runoff
>>> > step, which is not what they were criticizing.
>>> >
>>> > * You seem to dismiss the important difference between your
>>> > single-winner method and a good multi-winner method such as the
>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). STV really does increase
>>> > representation
>>> > for minorities, women, etc. In fact STV with three seats per
>>> district
>>> > (as chosen for Portland) guarantees representation for at least 66
>>> > percent of that district's voters. Yes, a single-winner method
>>> such as
>>> > STAR or instant-runoff voting (IRV) increases this representation
>>> > guarantee from zero to 50 percent. But that does not reach the
>>> higher
>>> > level that minorities want, and deserve.
>>> >
>>> > * Pointing out you have a few minority advocates who support STAR
>>> > voting
>>> > is a weak defense against the attacks from the many(!) minority
>>> voter
>>> > advocates in Portland who have been learning about the
>>> > single-transferable vote (STV). Remember STV will be used in
>>> Portland
>>> > in November to elect our city councilors.
>>> >
>>> > * Your suggestion that ranked choice voting is vulnerable to vote
>>> > splitting, but STAR voting is not vulnerable to vote splitting, is
>>> a
>>> > lie. This lie undermines your credibility for all your other
>>> claims.
>>> > If you try to define "vote splitting" as something that STAR voting
>>> > avoids and instant-runoff voting can fail, then you are guilty of
>>> the
>>> > same kind of misrepresentation that comes from the FairVote
>>> > organization.
>>> >
>>> > * The voter's-pamphlet statements in support of STAR voting wasted
>>> lots
>>> > of words talking about issues that are not as important as the
>>> above
>>> > issues. In my opinion these minor issues include the size of
>>> > summarized
>>> > ballot data, how simple it is for calculating, the monotonicity
>>> > criterion, whether it works well among friends, etc.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Clarification: Yes, STAR voting is well-designed for use among
>>> friends
>>> > where religious, dietary, etc. concerns can be expressed strongly,
>>> and
>>> > where selfish people can be excluded, and where voting is conducted
>>> > as a
>>> > single round of ballot marking and counting. However the
>>> > strength-of-expression advantage becomes a disadvantage in
>>> governmental
>>> > elections. That's because voters get extra influence by
>>> exaggerating
>>> > their ratings, such as not marking any candidates at levels 2 and
>>> 3.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Now let's talk about possible future collaborations, and barriers
>>> to
>>> > collaboration.
>>> >
>>> > I too dislike the FairVote organization. I've been fighting
>>> against
>>> > them for three decades.
>>> >
>>> > Yet if the FairVote organization offers to pay the fee (about
>>> $2,000 I
>>> > believe) to publish in the Oregon Voter's Pamphlet a statement
>>> from me,
>>> > Richard Fobes, the VoteFair guy, in support of the November
>>> referendum,
>>> > I will gladly accept their assistance.
>>> >
>>> > Or if the FairVote organization asks for permission to use my name
>>> as
>>> > being in support of the upcoming November referendum, I will agree
>>> > -- if
>>> > the promotion does not imply blind support for the FairVote
>>> > organization
>>> > and does not imply the Burlington and Alaska elections yielded the
>>> > correct winner.
>>> >
>>> > I'm open to this collaboration because they, the FairVote
>>> organization,
>>> > and I, the VoteFair guy, agree that RANKED CHOICE BALLOTS are
>>> needed
>>> > for
>>> > election-method reform.
>>> >
>>> > Reaching areas of agreement, and working in collaboration, is how
>>> > election-method reform is going to happen.
>>> >
>>> > This brings us to the core point in this letter.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > "Voters must be allowed to mark two or more candidates at the same
>>> > preference level."
>>> >
>>> > These are the words I spoke to the Oregon legislative "rules"
>>> committee
>>> > several years ago, back when the FairVote organization was
>>> > attempting to
>>> > push their flawed idea of how they think ranked choice ballots
>>> > should be
>>> > counted.
>>> >
>>> > Because of your testimony against that flawed FairVote bill, and
>>> > because
>>> > of my opposition, the Oregon lawyer who writes these bills later
>>> worked
>>> > with Oregon election-method experts to create the dramatically
>>> improved
>>> > wording that is now in the November referendum.
>>> >
>>> > The referendum wording does not contain any mention of "overvotes."
>>> > This is huge! Of course "overvote" is FairVote's terminology for
>>> > marking two or more candidates in the same choice column.
>>> >
>>> > This means you, the fans of STAR voting, can take credit for
>>> > dramatically improving election methods here in Oregon!
>>> >
>>> > If you want, you can think of this refinement as a concession by
>>> the
>>> > fans of the FairVote organization.
>>> >
>>> > Or you can spin it as a FairVote "lie" that is finally being
>>> exposed.
>>> >
>>> > The result is that, possibly in 2028 when we have the first
>>> statewide
>>> > Oregon election using ranked choice ballots, we can be using
>>> software
>>> > that correctly counts so-called "overvotes."
>>> >
>>> > As a reminder, when a voter marks two candidates at the same
>>> preference
>>> > level, and when the counting reaches that pattern, that ballot can
>>> be
>>> > paired with another ballot that has the same equivalent pattern,
>>> and
>>> > one
>>> > of those two ballots is counted as support for one of those two
>>> > candidates, and the other ballot is counted as support for the
>>> other
>>> > candidate. (Software can simulate this counting using decimal
>>> numbers
>>> > and rounding down to integers, but certified election software
>>> must not
>>> > use the decimal-number shortcut.)
>>> >
>>> > The remaining barrier to this correct counting of mythical
>>> "overvotes"
>>> > is the lack of "certified" ballot data against which upgraded
>>> election
>>> > software can be tested. Writing software is easy, but getting it
>>> > certified requires certified data.
>>> >
>>> > The Oregon lawyer who wrote most of the referendum wording calls
>>> this
>>> > "overvote" issue a "counting detail."
>>> >
>>> > Why is this "counting detail" so important?
>>> >
>>> > This software refinement eliminates a valid criticism that you,
>>> STAR
>>> > voting promoters, have against FairVote's version of instant-runoff
>>> > voting.
>>> >
>>> > Your criticism shows up in your recent pro-STAR scholarly article
>>> where
>>> > the authors (Quinn, Wolk, and Ogren) misrepresent ranked choice
>>> ballots
>>> > to be "user unfriendly." It's a misrepresentation because it does
>>> not
>>> > apply to ranked choice voting when mythical "overvotes" are
>>> correctly
>>> > counted. (There's another related user-friendly issue I'll get to
>>> > shortly.)
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > (E-M forum aside: Here's a link to that scholarly article:
>>> > https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3
>>> > <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3> )
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Yes, your "user unfriendly" criticism does apply when voters are
>>> > told to
>>> > avoid "overvotes." Especially when a voter wants to rank a
>>> strongly
>>> > disliked candidate as the voter's last choice, and there are not as
>>> > many
>>> > choice columns as candidates.
>>> >
>>> > However, after mythical "overvotes" are counted correctly, election
>>> > data
>>> > will reveal a big decrease in "spoiled" ballots. That will
>>> undermine
>>> > part of your characterization of ranked choice ballots as being
>>> "user
>>> > unfriendly."
>>> >
>>> > Furthermore, ranked choice ballots with no "overvote" limitation
>>> will
>>> > allow a voter to RATE the candidates.
>>> >
>>> > Just like on a score ballot!
>>> >
>>> > This means the voters who think STAR ballots are easier to mark
>>> will be
>>> > able to mark their ranked choice ballot as if it were a STAR
>>> ballot!
>>> > They just need to look into a mirror -- to reverse the
>>> left-to-right
>>> > orientation difference -- and ignore the column labels -- words
>>> instead
>>> > of stars and numbers.
>>> >
>>> > STAR voting fans correctly point out that some people prefer to
>>> > think in
>>> > terms of ratings rather than rankings. (Other voters regard
>>> ratings as
>>> > more difficult to assign.)
>>> >
>>> > When so-called overvotes are allowed on ranked choice ballots, a
>>> voter
>>> > can use either a rating or ranking approach, whichever they prefer!
>>> >
>>> > To repeat, this correct counting of so-called overvotes is allowed
>>> by
>>> > the wording in November's referendum because it avoids saying
>>> anything
>>> > about how to handle those mythical "overvotes."
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > There is yet another area were I, the VoteFair guy, and you, the
>>> > promoters of STAR voting, agree. And where we disagree with the
>>> > FairVote organization.
>>> >
>>> > The candidate with the fewest transferred votes is not always the
>>> least
>>> > popular. This is why the infamous Burlington mayoral election,
>>> and the
>>> > recent special Alaska election, elected the wrong winner.
>>> >
>>> > You correctly recognize that this unfairness is easy to see in Yee
>>> > diagrams.
>>> >
>>> > You use this unfairness as evidence that ranked choice ballots are
>>> > "user
>>> > unfriendly." Specifically a close election can require some
>>> voters to
>>> > mark their ballot tactically (instead of sincerely) to get the
>>> fairest
>>> > ("correct") election result.
>>> >
>>> > Misleadingly you fail to mention that this "user unfriendliness"
>>> will
>>> > disappear when better election software becomes available.
>>> >
>>> > The FairVote organization foolishly attempts to defend the
>>> failures in
>>> > Burlington and Alaska. This is part of why lots of people like
>>> STAR
>>> > voting, and why they regard the FairVote organization as their
>>> enemy.
>>> >
>>> > Fortunately the referendum wording is written clearly, in a way
>>> that
>>> > makes it possible to correct this vote-counting flaw in the future.
>>> >
>>> > I believe that adding just two sentences might be sufficient to
>>> correct
>>> > this flaw in a few years when more voters understand this subtle
>>> issue.
>>> >
>>> > Specifically, the referendum's counting method can be changed to
>>> > implement Benham's method. Just add words such as: "If a round of
>>> > counting has a pairwise winning candidate, that candidate is
>>> elected; a
>>> > pairwise winning candidate is a candidate who would win every
>>> > one-on-one
>>> > contest against every remaining candidate."
>>> >
>>> > Or, the wording can be changed to implement the Ranked Choice
>>> Including
>>> > Pairwise Elimination (RCIPE) method. In this case the added words
>>> > would
>>> > say something like: "Pairwise losing candidates are eliminated
>>> when
>>> > they occur; a pairwise losing candidate is a candidate who would
>>> lose
>>> > every one-on-one contest against every remaining candidate."
>>> >
>>> > The result would be an election method that overcomes the
>>> criticisms
>>> > against the version of instant-runoff voting that the FairVote
>>> > organization foolishly tries to defend.
>>> >
>>> > Hopefully you recognize that the referendum can, with the addition
>>> of
>>> > two sentences, yield all the most significant election-method
>>> > advantages
>>> > of STAR voting.
>>> >
>>> > Of course some of your STAR-voting fans will not welcome this
>>> > interpretation.
>>> >
>>> > Yet you can claim credit for helping Oregon adopt a
>>> > reasonably-well-designed method that significantly differs from
>>> what
>>> > the
>>> > FairVote organization originally tried to push through the Oregon
>>> > legislature.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Now I'll discuss a concern.
>>> >
>>> > I'm concerned that you, the STAR voting promoters, might try to
>>> > sabotage
>>> > the November referendum. That might be based on your belief that
>>> the
>>> > FairVote organization is your enemy, and that this referendum is an
>>> > opportunity to "fight back" after losing the Eugene initiative.
>>> >
>>> > Any such sabotage would be a sabotage against all Oregon voters,
>>> the
>>> > majority of whom want a better election system. Remember it would
>>> hurt
>>> > Eugene voters too!
>>> >
>>> > And remember the last election for Oregon's governor in which we
>>> had to
>>> > vote tactically to avoid vote splitting because of independent
>>> > candidate
>>> > Betsy Johnson getting money from a Nike co-founder. The referendum
>>> > will
>>> > solve that vote-splitting problem.
>>> >
>>> > In case it's important, I did not express opposition against the
>>> STAR
>>> > voting initiative. I remained neutral because I used to know lots
>>> of
>>> > people who live in Eugene and I want them to get a better election
>>> > system. (I agree that STAR voting is better than plurality.) In
>>> fact,
>>> > long ago, I used to tell friends in Eugene we need to be using
>>> > "order-of-preference ballots." That was back in the mid 1990's,
>>> long
>>> > before STAR voting was invented in Eugene, long before the name
>>> "ranked
>>> > choice voting" was introduced, and back when I attended so many
>>> dances
>>> > in Eugene that some people in Eugene thought I lived there.
>>> Getting
>>> > back to the present, I was genuinely curious to see how Eugene
>>> voters
>>> > would respond to your initiative.
>>> >
>>> > The Eugene defeat of STAR voting reveals that a huge number of
>>> Eugene
>>> > voters correctly recognize that ranked choice ballots, with a
>>> > well-chosen counting method, are better than STAR ballots.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > In a bigger context, any attempts to defeat the November referendum
>>> > could lead to planet-wide suicide!
>>> >
>>> > Back in the 1970's, while living in Corvallis, I did all the
>>> coursework
>>> > for a master's degree in Atmospheric Science at Oregon State
>>> > University.
>>> > Plus I did a summer fellowship at the National Center for
>>> > Atmospheric
>>> > Research (NCAR) where I found and fixed a bug in one of their
>>> climate
>>> > models. So I have known since the 1970s that our planet is in a
>>> very
>>> > bad feedback loop where each loss of snow and ice coverage at the
>>> north
>>> > and south poles reduces the sunlight reflected back into space,
>>> which
>>> > increases solar absorption, which increases the rate at which the
>>> snow
>>> > and ice melt. That understanding is part of what motivates me to
>>> > pursue
>>> > election-method reform with a sense of urgency.
>>> >
>>> > Adopting a better election system is the tipping point that will
>>> switch
>>> > governments into climate-relevant action instead of further delays.
>>> >
>>> > Plus it will dramatically increase economic prosperity for Oregon
>>> after
>>> > we adopt a well-designed election system for electing our Oregon
>>> state
>>> > representatives. (That's the next step after adopting this
>>> > referendum.)
>>> > (And consider that better economic prosperity will reduce
>>> > domino-effect symptoms such as homelessness and crime.)
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > In the meantime our Oregon state legislature is giving us this huge
>>> > opportunity to implement election-method reform that will help
>>> > civilization reach much higher levels of democracy.
>>> >
>>> > At the national level, higher levels of democracy will "uncrazify"
>>> our
>>> > crazy U.S. elections so we can fill Congress with problem-solving
>>> > leaders. They will replace any members of Congress who persist in
>>> > being
>>> > puppets of their biggest campaign contributors.
>>> >
>>> > You and the fans of STAR voting have helped make this happen. You
>>> > pushed back against the FairVote organization's flawed version of
>>> > "their" vote-counting method so that Oregon election-method experts
>>> > could write a well-designed referendum.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > I'm aware that Mark Frohnmayer, who provides lots of the funding to
>>> > promote STAR voting, originally was a fan of instant-runoff voting.
>>> > That's because decades ago a friend in Eugene sent me a clipping
>>> of the
>>> > article in the Eugene Register Guard newspaper about him promoting
>>> that
>>> > method. Since then, you, Mark Frohnmayer, and I have seen and
>>> heard
>>> > each other during verbal testimony to the Oregon state
>>> legislature. If
>>> > you should want to meet via video to ask any questions, I'm open to
>>> > that
>>> > form of communication.
>>> >
>>> > While looking up the correct spelling for Frohnmayer I was reminded
>>> > that
>>> > Mark's father, Dave, lost an election to become Oregon governor
>>> because
>>> > of vote splitting (partly because of spiteful funding to Al Mobley
>>> as a
>>> > spoiler candidate). That's sad because Dave Frohnmayer would have
>>> been
>>> > a great governor.
>>> >
>>> > In November we have an opportunity to adopt an election system
>>> that, if
>>> > it had been used back then, would have elected Mark's father,
>>> Dave, in
>>> > spite of the presence of an intentional spoiler candidate.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > All of you who promote STAR voting have lots to be proud of.
>>> >
>>> > * You have helped educate huge numbers of voters about the need for
>>> > better ballots.
>>> >
>>> > * You have taught huge numbers of voters about vote splitting.
>>> >
>>> > * Wisely you have pushed to allow a voter to mark more than one
>>> > candidate at the same preference level.
>>> >
>>> > * You have exposed the FairVote organization's lie that the
>>> candidate
>>> > with the fewest transferred votes is always least popular.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Let's build on the election-method reform foundation we have been
>>> > building together throughout many years.
>>> >
>>> > I look forward to working with you, rather than against you, as we
>>> take
>>> > advantage of the huge election reform the Oregon legislature has
>>> wisely
>>> > given to us.
>>> >
>>> > We don't have time for any more misunderstandings. Glaciers are
>>> > melting
>>> > faster than elections are being improved.
>>> >
>>> > Richard Fobes
>>> > The VoteFair guy
>>> > ----
>>> > Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em
>>> > <https://electorama.com/em> for list info
>>> >
>>> ----
>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
>>> info
>>>
>>
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