[EM] A rant about IRV and it's recent history in Alaska.

Thu Dec 5 07:50:56 PST 2024

>
> Ultimately, the fundamental fact remains that FairVote claims IRV
> eliminates the spoiler effect, when it's been demonstrated twice now that
> this is only true until the "spoiler" has enough support to eliminate the
> Condorcet winner before the final round.

Correct, it's been "demonstrated twice now" ... out of around 700 IRV
elections, or less than 0.3% of the time. Coincidentally, that number (2)
is the same number of elections in which there has been no Condorcet
winner. With those numbers, I get about equally worked up about the
prospect of either ... which is to say barely at all. I find it suspect and
just plain odd to see someone like RB-J get so bothered by such vanishingly
rare events.

Moreover, the fact that Peltola won the November 2022 election further
undercuts the concern that IRV may elect an "extremist
<https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3711206-the-flaw-in-ranked-choice-voting-rewarding-extremists/>."
The idea that Peltola, a clear moderate
<https://alaskapublic.org/2024/03/28/peltolas-votes-show-shes-one-of-the-least-loyal-democrats-in-the-u-s-house/>
who
endorsed a Republican
<https://theweek.com/2022-election/1017771/alaska-gop-sen-lisa-murkowski-and-democratic-rep-mary-peltola-endorse-each>
for Senate, was an "extremist" should have been laughable on its face. That
she went on to be the Condorcet winner a few months later and then the most
popular Alaskan politician
<https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/3/14/rep-peltola-is-the-most-popular-politician-in-alaska-she-still-faces-a-tight-race>
was
just further proof.

And that's before we look at what's happened to the state legislature.
While RB-J is obsessed with whether IRV elects the mathematical compromise
candidate in every single election, a bipartisan compromise coalition has
now captured both houses
<https://alaskapublic.org/2024/11/07/coalition-lawmakers-say-theyre-confident-bipartisan-alaska-house-majority-will-hold/>
of the Alaska state house under Top-4 IRV. He's looking at a forest and
only seeing one tree.

In light of these positive results, the motivation for RB-J's rant is hard
to decipher. Perhaps it's an obsession with theories on chalkboards over
functioning political realities. Or perhaps he just signed up for "Team
Condorcet" long ago, and has a sport-fan-like mentality that means he must
put down the "competition" when they "win." But for anyone genuinely
interested in seeing compromise candidates and coalitions being elected,
the example of Alaska should be earning praise, not rants.

- Greg

On Thu, Dec 5, 2024 at 8:46 AM Michael Garman <michael.garman at rankthevote.us>
wrote:

> FairVote has recently updated its messaging guidance to explicitly change
> the verbiage from “eliminate” to “reduce”
>
> On Thu, Dec 5, 2024 at 7:55 AM John T Whelan <john.whelan at astro.rit.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> That, like RB-J's original statement, is something of an
>> oversimplification.  Yes, Peltola was the Condorcet winner in the 2022
>> general (when she had the advantage of incumbency) and Begich was the
>> Condorcet winner in 2024 (when the electorate in general shifted to the
>> right compared to 2020 and 2022).  Ultimately, the fundamental fact remains
>> that FairVote claims IRV eliminates the spoiler effect, when it's been
>> demonstrated twice now that this is only true until the "spoiler" has
>> enough support to eliminate the Condorcet winner before the final round.
>>
>> This assessment is independent of the fact that I personally would rather
>> see Peltola in that seat than Begich.
>>
>> JTW
>>
>> ________________________________________
>> From: Election-Methods <election-methods-bounces at lists.electorama.com>
>> on behalf of Michael Garman <michael.garman at rankthevote.us>
>> Sent: Thursday, December 5, 2024 12:38 AM
>> To: Greg Dennis
>> Cc: election-methods at lists.electorama.com
>> Subject: Re: [EM] A rant about IRV and it's recent history in Alaska.
>>
>> Because rb-j is an intellectually dishonest crank who doesn’t want to be
>> confused by facts after he’s made up his mind
>>
>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2024 at 12:35 AM Greg Dennis <
>> greg.dennis at voterchoicema.org<mailto:greg.dennis at voterchoicema.org>>
>> wrote:
>> Why leave out the November 2022 election where Peltola was the Condorcet
>> winner against Begich?
>>
>> On Wed, Dec 4, 2024 at 4:46 PM robert bristow-johnson <
>> rbj at audioimagination.com<mailto:rbj at audioimagination.com>> wrote:
>> This is what we've learned from the 2-year history of Ranked-Choice
>> Voting in Alaska.
>>
>> The Instant-Runoff Voting method of RCV failed in Alaska August 2022 at
>> everything that RCV is supposed to do for us (as it also did in [Burlington
>> Vermont 2009](
>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jIhFQfEoxSdyRz5SqEjZotbVDx4xshwM/view)).
>>
>> Essentially, it was a spoiled election with all the bad things that come
>> with a spoiled election.  In August 2022, Sarah Palin was a loser whose
>> presence in the race materially changed who the winner was.  Had Palin not
>> run, Begich would meet Peltola in the final round and defeat Peltola.  (We
>> know this from the [tallies](
>> https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y32bPVmq6vb6SwnMn6vwQxzoJfvrv6ID/view)
>> from the Cast Vote Record.)
>>
>> The definition of a Spoiler is a loser whose presence in the race
>> materially changes who the winner is.
>>
>> So then these voters for the spoiler, Palin, they find out that their
>> second-choice vote was never counted.  Their favorite candidate was
>> defeated and their second-choice vote was never counted.  If just 1 out of
>> 13 of the Palin voters that marked Begich as their lesser evil (there were
>> 34089 of them); if about 2600 of these voters voted tactically (the tactic
>> is called "compromising") and marked their lesser-evil (Begich) as their
>> first-choice vote, then Begich would have met Peltola in the final round
>> and beaten Peltola.
>>
>> They were promised that it was safe to vote for their favorite, Sarah
>> Palin, but by doing so they caused the election of Mary Peltola.  But they
>> prevented Begich from having a head-to-head with Peltola because Palin did
>> instead and lost.
>>
>> There were about 112000 voting GOP and 75000 Dem.  The GOP vote was split
>> and RCV promised that it would resolve the split vote correctly, but it
>> didn't.  IRV propped up the *weaker* of the two GOP candidates against
>> Peltola and that candidate lost.  If, instead, RCV had put Begich up
>> against Peltola, Begich would have won.
>>
>> They were promised that RCV would let them vote their hopes, not their
>> fears.  But they would have been better off voting their fears.  They were
>> promised their second-choice vote would count if their favorite candidate
>> couldn't get elected but that second-choice vote was never counted for
>> these Palin voters.
>>
>> More Alaskans, 87899 to 79461 (an 8438 voter margin), preferred Begich to
>> Peltola and marked their ballots saying so.  But Mary Peltola was elected
>> instead.
>>
>> This November, again, more Alaskan voters marked their ballots that
>> Begich is preferred to Peltola by nearly the same margin, 8354 (164117 to
>> 155763).
>>
>> Both times about 8000 more Alaskans said they would prefer Begich over
>> Peltola to go to Washington and represent the state.  And, both times,
>> Alaskan voters marked their ballots saying so.  Both times, Instant-Runoff
>> Voting was used.
>>
>> What was different?
>>
>> Sarah Palin was in the race in 2022 and not in the race in 2024.  And
>> different winners resulted.
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj at audioimagination.com<mailto:
>> rbj at audioimagination.com>
>>
>> "Imagination is more important than knowledge."
>>
>> .
>> .
>> .
>> ----
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>> info
>>
>>
>> --
>> Greg Dennis, Ph.D. :: Policy Director
>> Voter Choice Massachusetts
>>
>> e :: greg.dennis at voterchoicema.org<mailto:greg.dennis at voterchoicema.org>
>> p :: 617.835.9161<tel:617.835.9161>
>> w :: voterchoicema.org<https://www.voterchoicema.org/>
>>
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>>
>

-- 
*Greg Dennis, Ph.D. :: Policy Director*
Voter Choice Massachusetts

e :: greg.dennis at voterchoicema.org
p :: 617.835.9161
w :: voterchoicema.org <https://www.voterchoicema.org/>

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