[EM] Suppose, for a moment, there were never any cycles...

[robert bristow-johnson]

> On 01/23/2023 8:53 AM EST John T Whelan <john.whelan at astro.rit.edu> wrote:
> 
>  
> I generally agree with all of this (IRV failing to elect the Condorcet winner is both unfair and runs the risk of convincing people to switch back to FPtP, which is much worse).  But Alaska was also different in another way: there was a rematch a few months later in the general election.  If voters were really upset about Peltola winning the special election, a logical outcome would be for some Palin voters to tactically list Begich as their first choice so he would make it to the instant runoff and be elected.

That would be logical, but there was so much mis/disinformation.  In fact, Palin had the audacity to call on Begich to step aside so that she (Palin) could beat Peltola.  That was really stupid since Palin had her womano-a-womano with Peltola in August and lost whereas we know that Begich wwould have won against Peltola in August.

Just because something is logical, doesn't mean voters (or politicians) will "get it."

>  But instead Peltola increased her vote share at the expense of the other two:
> 
> Special:
> First round:
> Peltola 74,817  39.7%
> Palin    58,339  30.9%
> Begich 52,536  27.8%
> Runoff:
> Peltola 91,266  51.5%
> Palin    86,026  48.5%
> Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election
> 
> General:
> First round:
> Peltola 128,553  48.8%
> Palin     67,866   25.7%
> Begich  61,513   23.3%
> Runoff:
> Peltola 137,263   55.0%
> Palin    112,471   45.0%
> Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska
> 
> Now of course all three candidates increased their vote totals, Peltola had the incumbency advantage in the general, etc, etc.  I can't seem to fine the definitive answer, but I'm guessing Peltola was actually the Condorcet winner the second time around, since she only needed 6% of Palin's votes to be exhausted, given that the totals after write-ins and Bye were eliminated were:
> 
> Peltola 129,786  49.22%
> Palin      69,399  26.32%
> Begich   64,499  24.46%
> 
> Source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22GENR/US%20REP.pdf
> 

It is almost certain that Peltola was the CW in November since Palin+Begich was only 1.5% more than Peltola and it's virtually certain that not all Palin voters would have marked Begich as #2.  All we would need is one of 16 Palin ballots to fail to mark Begich as #2 and Peltola beats Begich one-on-one.  And we know already that Peltola creams Palin head-to-head.

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r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj at audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

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