[EM] More on Foley and Maskin's "total vote runoff"

[Bob Richard [lists]]

In this blog post (new today), Foley describes what he thinks is the 
relationship between "total vote runoff" and Baldwin:

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=133027

He seems to be saying (I think) that the two methods are computationally 
different but always get the same answer.

--Bob Richard

------ Original Message ------
From: "Bob Richard (lists)" <lists001 at robertjrichard.com>
To: "election-methods at lists.electorama.com" 
<election-methods at lists.electorama.com>
Sent: 11/7/2022 6:06:59 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] Fwd: Election-methods messages not being posted

>I'm not completely sure, but I think the method they are describing is 
>Baldwin
>
>https://electowiki.org/wiki/Baldwin%27s_method
>
>If I understand them correctly, the main advantage they see is the 
>purely practical one that it can be sold as a modification of IRV 
>rather than something different from IRV.
>
>--Bob Richard
>
>------ Original Message ------
>From: "Hahn, Paul" <manynote at wustl.edu>
>To: "election-methods at lists.electorama.com" 
><election-methods at lists.electorama.com>
>Sent: 11/7/2022 1:40:36 AM
>Subject: Re: [EM] Fwd: Election-methods messages not being posted
>
>>To me that description sounds like Borda.
>>
>>--pH
>>
>>>On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:09 AM, Rob Lanphier <roblan at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>Ralph asked me to forward this message to the list....
>>>-------- Forwarded Message --------
>>>Subject: "Total Vote Runoff" proposed as better way to determine 
>>>ranked-choice winners
>>>Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2022 13:13:21 -0500
>>>From: Ralph Suter <RLSuter at aol.com> <mailto:RLSuter at aol.com>
>>>To: election-methods-request at lists.electorama.com
>>>
>>>
>>>In a Washington Post opinion article published today (11/2/2022), 
>>>election law scholar Edward Foley and economist (and Nobel laureate) 
>>>Erik Maskin propose a "tweak" to correct what they describe a flaw in 
>>>how ranked choice winners are currently determined. They call the 
>>>resulting election method a "total Vote Runoff".
>>>Would anyone like to comment? It appears they are essentially 
>>>proposing replacing instant run-off voting with Condorcet voting.
>>>
>>>-Ralph Suter
>>>
>>>---------------------------------
>>>
>>>Alaska’s ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there’s an easy fix.
>>>By Edward B. Foley 
>>><https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpeople%2Fedward-b-foley%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901705981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=CWW9yLx9%2BiXydFJ0Z3t40zdmCxJOdDSIM9DJMmxRBjc%3D&reserved=0> 
>>>andEric S. Maskin
>>>November 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
>>>https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/alaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola/ 
>>><https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fopinions%2F2022%2F11%2F01%2Falaska-final-four-primary-begich-palin-peltola%2F&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ZyjYWk4PJuT%2FGrW3L4%2Bh6Q%2BOGx6rWpwSmh6wiQcDyI4%3D&reserved=0>
>>>
>>>Excerpt:
>>>Alaska’s special election in August for the House of Representatives 
>>>was heralded as a triumph for ranked-choice voting, because MAGA 
>>>favorite Sarah Palin, a personification of polarization, could not 
>>>attract enough second-choice votes from moderate Republican Nick 
>>>Begich’s supporters to win.
>>>
>>>That’s true. But the way Alaska uses ranked-choice voting also caused 
>>>the defeat of Begich, whom most Alaska voters preferred to Democrat 
>>>Mary Peltola, the candidate who ended up winning.
>>>
>>>This anomalous outcome, contrary to the principle that the majority’s 
>>>preference should prevail, would be easily remedied by one small 
>>>change.
>>>
>>>The key to ranked-choice voting is that a voter lists the candidates 
>>>in order of preference, starting with their favorite, rather than 
>>>naming just that favorite. The problem in Alaska — and other 
>>>ranked-choice systems now in use, from Maine to San Francisco —is the 
>>>rule for eliminating candidates when no one gets a majority of 
>>>first-place votes. By tweaking this rule, Alaska’s system would 
>>>become more palatable to Republicans and Democrats alike, and more 
>>>likely to be adopted across the country.
>>>
>>>Begich was eliminated because he had the fewest first-place votes. 
>>>That seems logical at first glance. But the flaw in this outcome — 
>>>and why Republicans have reason to be resentful — is that a majority 
>>>of voters would have favored Begich had the race come down to a 
>>>head-to-head matchup against either Peltola (52 percent to 48 
>>>percent) or Palin (61 percent to 39 percent). He lost only because it 
>>>was a three-way race.
>>>
>>>Here’s how to fix the flaw. If Alaska eliminated the candidate with 
>>>the fewest total votes, rather than the fewest first-place votes, the 
>>>ranked-choice system would be sure to elect a candidate such as 
>>>Begich who defeats all rivals in one-on-one matchups.
>>>
>>>Call it a “Total Vote Runoff.” A candidate’s total votes in such a 
>>>system would be determined by the number of other candidates he or 
>>>she is ranked above. For example, when a candidate is ranked first on 
>>>a ballot in an election involving three candidates, then this 
>>>first-choice candidate is ranked above two other candidates and gets 
>>>two votes from this ballot.
>>>
>>>When that same candidate is ranked second on another ballot, the 
>>>candidate is favored over only one other candidate and would receive 
>>>only one vote from that ballot.
>>>
>>>A candidate ranked last on a ballot, or not ranked at all, is not 
>>>favored over anyone and gets no votes from that ballot.
>>>
>>>Calculating the number of votes that a candidate gets on each ballot 
>>>— two, one or zero — and adding up the candidate’s votes from all the 
>>>ballots yields the candidate’s total votes.
>>>
>>>Using this method, we can identify the number of ballots on which 
>>>each of Alaska’s three candidates was ranked first or second and then 
>>>calculate each candidate’s total votes (there were only three 
>>>candidates in the House special election):
>>>
>>>>Alaska House results using total vote runoff
>>>>First-place votes get counted twice because voters put their first 
>>>>choice ahead of two other candidates.
>>>>
>>>>Column 1: Candidate
>>>>Column 2: first-place votes
>>>>Column 3: first-place votes, counted again
>>>>Column 4: second-place votes
>>>>Column 5: Overall Total
>>>>
>>>>Begich53,810 53,810 81,253 188,873
>>>>Peltola75,799 75,799 19,024 170,622
>>>>Palin58,973 58,973 31,611 149,557
>>>>Source: Alaska official results, Alaska cast vote records, MIT 
>>>>Election Data and Science Lab, Election Law at Ohio State, author 
>>>>calculations 
>>>><https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elections.alaska.gov%2Fresults%2F22SSPG%2FRcvDetailedReport.pdf&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=6dJZaB3lo5EwSDENGHGYX4Uugjg3tUL8EWl3moGfUMM%3D&reserved=0>
>>>Palin had the fewest total votes, so she would have been the first 
>>>candidate eliminated in a “Total Vote Runoff” tweak to RCV.
>>>
>>>With Palin eliminated, the race would have been between Begich and 
>>>Peltola. Because a majority preferred Begich to Peltola, he would 
>>>have been elected. Total Vote Runoff captures the will of the 
>>>majority more accurately than Alaska’s current elimination system 
>>>does.
>>>
>>>Republicans should like Total Vote Runoff because its procedure would 
>>>help ameliorate the “candidate quality 
>>><https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022-election%2Fmcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777&data=05%7C01%7Cmanynote%40wustl.edu%7Cfa133c67c4dc47f95e4b08dac09fb788%7C4ccca3b571cd4e6d974b4d9beb96c6d6%7C0%7C0%7C638034089901862217%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C2000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1dl8uetLcUijN9N%2FRjbloioH7ytYSJmANmk8JrAyZZs%3D&reserved=0>” 
>>>problem that plagues their party, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch 
>>>McConnell (R-Ky.) lamented. A candidate popular only with the party’s 
>>>base would be eliminated early in a Total Vote Runoff, leaving a more 
>>>broadly popular Republican to compete against a Democrat.
>>>
>>>Democrats, too, should welcome Total Runoff Voting to protect against 
>>>losses caused by excessively progressive candidates who are 
>>>unacceptable to a large portion of independent voters. Alaska-style 
>>>ranked-choice voting might keep in contention a left-wing candidate 
>>>whose first-place votes reflect enthusiastic but limited support, but 
>>>Total Runoff Voting would promote Democratic candidates whose wide 
>>>appeal makes them more competitive overall.
>>>
>>>----
>>>Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for 
>>>list info
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