[EM] IRV counting with integers to handle multiple candidates at the same preference level
Richard, the VoteFair guy
electionmethods at votefair.org
Wed Jan 26 17:45:55 PST 2022
I'd like to stop the misconception that IRV -- instant runoff voting,
also called "single-winner ranked choice voting" -- cannot allow a voter
to mark two or more candidates at the same preference level.
In particular, it's ridiculous that the FairVote organization promotes
the practice of tossing out a ballot when the counting reaches a
preference level where the voter has marked more than one candidate.
Although such shared preference levels are easy to handle using
fractions or decimals, that violates the common legal requirement that
votes be allocated to candidates in "whole" numbers.
Instead it can be done using only integers. It just involves
"grouping." Here's how:
When there are two ballots that rank candidates A and B at the same
preference level, one of the ballots is allocated to candidate A, and
the other ballot is allocated to candidate B.
When a third ballot with this preference is encountered, it's not yet
allocated. Then when the fourth arrives the third and fourth ballots
(with this pattern) are allocated to the two candidates, with one ballot
going to each candidate.
When there are 379 ballots with this pattern, 378 will be allocated, and
only one ballot will be uncounted. That's much better than tossing out
all 379 ballots.
It's that simple.
Writing the software is not difficult. It just involves grouping
equivalent ballots together. This grouping must be done separately for
each elimination round because the patterns change as candidates are
eliminated.
If anyone wants to know how the software can do this using only
integers, and simple C-language-like statements, just ask. I've
implemented it in my vote-counting software on GitHub.
The importance of this issue goes beyond a voter not having a preference
between two (or more) candidates.
Most of us voters want to be able to mark a strongly disliked candidate
at the lowest preference level. For example, imagine having 9
candidates and 6 ranking levels and strongly disliking candidate "I":
A > B > C+D > E > F+G+H > I
Not being able to rank candidate "I" at the lowest preference level is
unacceptable! Yet that can't be done if IRV counting can't handle
shared preference levels.
(And having 9 preference levels for 9 candidates puts us on a slippery
slope to how to handle the 135 candidates in the infamous California
gubernatorial recall election.)
Keep in mind that the number of viable candidates in elections will
increase. That's because vote splitting in general elections is what
caused political parties to limit themselves to just one nominee from
each party. As more places adopt IRV and other better ranked-choice
methods, vote splitting won't be an issue.
There's yet another reason some political parties will need to offer a
second candidate. It defeats the election tactic named "blocking."
That's the tactic of giving money to support a weaker candidate in a
primary election so that it's easier to defeat that party during the
general election. A clear example happened in the 2008 U.S.
presidential election when Hillary Clinton was blocked from reaching the
general election partially because some Republicans gave money to Barack
Obama based on their expectation that he could not possibly win the
general election.
Another reason for political parties offering a second nominee is that
in a gerrymandered district (which applies to most U.S. federal and
state districts) the winner's party is pre-determined, so offering just
one nominee means the district's minority-party voters have no
meaningful choice in the general election.
(By the way, as pointed out in a recent article at the Center for
Election Science, this is why extremist candidates are getting elected
rather easily under our single-nominee election system. They can get
elected with plurality support from less than half the dominant-party
voters, who themselves only need to be around 55 or 60 percent of the
district's voters. The single-nominee rule means the extremist
candidate is virtually unopposed in the general election.)
(Of course defeating these tactics won't come from political parties,
and certainly won't come from government initiatives. Yet ways to
defeat these unfair political-manipulation tactics are waiting to be
adopted.)
(BTW, tiny parties, with fewer than, say 15 percent of the voters
registered in that party, would only get one nominee. Or they would be
allowed a second nominee when a big party fails to offer a second nominee.)
So, the increase in the number of party nominees, and hopefully an
increase in opposition parties, will increase the number of candidates.
This means the places that get stuck with IRV (in spite of much better
methods), should not also be stuck with ranking each candidate at a
different preference level.
Of course the FairVote organization avoids this fairer approach because
they're trying to use IRV as a stepping-stone to STV, and STV becomes
complex when voters mark ballots this way. But it's time to reject the
unfairness of tossing out IRV ballots just because counting those
ballots under STV would become complex.
(Also, there are better STV-like methods that don't have the limitations
of STV.)
Now that discussions of IRV are increasing because of the proposed
"Forward Party" endorsing "ranked choice voting," those of us who
understand the math behind vote counting need to make it clear that IRV
does not have the shared-ranking limitation that FairVote imposes in
their certified software.
Probably all of you who write messages on this forum already understand
this concept.
Yet I'm hoping that those who only read this forum's messages will
understand that FairVote's claims (on their website and elsewhere) that
IRV ("single-winner RCV") cannot handle a voter marking more than one
candidate at the same preference level is a request to drink their
Kool-Aid, not an actual limitation in IRV.
Richard Fobes
The VoteFair guy
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