[EM] Strategy in the 1992 POTUS election (Clinton/Bush/Perot)

[Rob Lanphier]

Hi folks,

A couple of folks I know are planning to do some serious analysis of
the 1992 POTUS election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election

They seem startlingly uninterested in hearing my Ross Perot
impersonation, but I guess to each their own.  :-)

Here on the EM-list, we've been trotting out the Clinton/Bush/Perot
example for a LONG time on this mailing list.  It's arguably a case of
"center squeeze", if one considers Perot to be in the "center" of the
1992 election.  I've personally thought a lot about that election,
because it happened during my slow transition from "loyal Republican"
to "loyal Democrat".  These days I'm arguably a stereotypical
west-coast liberal, but I know how to pass for a Texan if I wanted to.
(For the record: I don't want to; though trotting out a Texan accent
comes in handy for my Ross Perot impersonation).

I have lots of subjective opinions about the 1992 election, but I
think it's worth remembering the timeline.  IIRC, Perot was polling
above 20% before he dropped out in the early summer (June?  July?  I
can't remember....).  Then he RE-ENTERED the race just before the
three debates that happened that fall.  The debate commission had to
keep changing the rules to get Bush and Clinton to agree to
participate, because each style seemed to favor a different candidate.
Both Bush and Clinton acquiesced to letting Perot on the stage,
because neither wanted to appear to be afraid of Perot.  As I recall,
during the third debate, (see <https://youtu.be/cm-UAfEdWg4>), each
candidate was allowed to have something like one page of notes placed
on their podium prior to the debate, and they were required to stand
behind their respective podiums.  I believe that was because Clinton
gained an advantage after the second debate by getting up out of his
chair and walking around.  Clinton's strong polling just before the
third debate suggests that: <https://youtu.be/fqFy2vzwSVs>  Just
before that third debate, Clinton's percentage of the polling vote
(49%) was much more than Bush's (31%) and Perot's (12%) combined.
It's worth keeping in mind that ABC News was polling based on
choose-one voting, because most people didn't think of polling for
approval rating (and I'm guessing that Steven Brams was throwing
things at his television set if he was watching that newscast).

How big of a role did the three debates play?  I'm not sure, but the
general consensus that I recall from the time is that they played an
enormous influence.  Like Ross Perot says, I'm the crazy aunt in the
basement who wants to talk about numbers:
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6UYwEUVGkE>.

Seriously, though: does anyone know the best place to find the
approval ratings for all of the candidates during the campaign?  If
not approval ratings, then at least the best choose-one polling
numbers?  It would help the folks doing analysis on the 1992 election,
and I'd find the numbers interesting too (like the crazy uncle in the
basement).

Rob
p.s. I may post some links here:
(<https://electowiki.org/wiki/User:RobLa/POTUS1992>) and turn this
into a proper electowiki article.