[EM] So I got an email...

[Rob Lanphier]

Hi Kevin, Robert, et al,

No offense to what r b-j wrote, but I think I want to respond mainly
to what Kevin Venzke wrote.

More inline....

On Sat, Apr 9, 2022 at 8:52 PM Kevin Venzke <stepjak at yahoo.fr> wrote:
> However, if the IRV advocate wants to point out that Condorcet methods are
> susceptible to burial while IRV is not, he will always be able to find some
> scenario to show it.
> [...]
> I think we should say the strategy "works" (i.e. for both of the 40% blocs) only
> if they both prefer the coin flip over the election of C.
>
> And actually, as you show below, it may be pessimistic to assume the alternative
> to the coin flip is the election of C.
> [...]
> Yes, that has high likelihood of backfiring and electing A. In fact if the method
> satisfies Schwartz, there is no tie. A is the only candidate in the Schwartz set:
> A has a beatpath to both B and C, which neither can return.
>
> In general a line of thinking like "C is probably going to win, let's try to make
> C lose" seems a little suspect, or not fully fleshed out.

The scenarios that FairVote folks like to point out are the classic
Burlington-2009-style center squeeze elections.  The "two parties"
that emerge in the final round of an RCV/IRV election are not really
parties, but rather two coalitions of extremists ready to do battle
against each other.  So, in Burlington in 2009, it was Kurt Wright and
the Republicans versus Bob Kiss and the Vermont Progressives in the
final round of voting, and of course Bob Kiss won.  Can you imagine
the largest city in Vermont electing a Republican?  A state
represented in the United States Senate by Senator Bernie Sanders, the
former mayor of Burlington?  A state whose capital is a 90 minute bus
ride from Burlington?  It seems ludicrous, doesn't it?  But Andy
Montroll (the Democratic Party candidate) almost certainly should have
won the 2009 election, and replaced Bob Kiss (the Vermont Progressive
candidate)

It could be that the Republicans try again in 2024, against Democratic
Party incumbent.  The 2021 election was a close one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Burlington_mayoral_election

However, Mayor Weinberger nearly lost to Vermont Progressive rather
than a Republican.  2024 is going to be a very interesting election.
It seems that the Vermont Progressives are the useful idiots helping
to keep the two party system in place.  I'm really glad I didn't vote
for Bernie Sanders in any Democratic Party primary.

I'm betting most people think of "B" as the middle candidate in an ABC
election.  Thus this seems like a more intuitive way of expressing
that election:
ABC - 40%
BAC - 10%
BCA - 10%
CBA - 40%

A and C are the two candidates that get 40% and they are the extremes.
B is caught in the middle with only 20%.  Instead of the electorate
compromising on B (which has 20% first place support, but 80% second
place support), we have a very close election in RCV/IRV between A and
C.  Guess what friends: close elections are going to be close.  There
will be a recount.  This example just demonstrates why IRV/RCV fails
terribly in close elections, and the center squeeze is a real thing:
https://electowiki.org/wiki/Center_squeeze

But yes, put "C" as the middle candidate, and then convince people
that electoral reform is complicated and mumble something about
Arrow's theorem, and make the example more difficult to read.  Totally
expressed in good faith.  Thanks Rob (Richie).  TWO PARTY SYSTEM
FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!  POLARIZATION RULEZZZZ!!!!!!!1!!!1!

So many of the theoretical strategies are (as you say, Kevin), "not
fully fleshed out".

Rob Lanphier
[ who may not have been "Rob" first, but has always been "Rob" best
:-P   Also, Rob Lanphier doesn't actually want the two party system
forever, but may be willing to work for the Democratic party in 2022
to avoid what happened in 2017 through 2021.  It is CRAZY that Justice
Ketanji Brown Jackson's senate confirmation was 53-47, and that was
considered a courageous bipartisan vote by Senators Collins,
Murkowski, and Romney,  For my colleagues in the United States: the
2022 election MATTERS ].