[EM] RCV in SF Mayoral election

[robert bristow-johnson]

I wonder if what happened in San Francisco last Tuesday is what happened to "the San Francisco of New England" 9 years ago?
No way to tell without getting individual ballot data for 160K ballots.
So, specifically, I wonder if Jane Kim might have been the Condorcet Winner and was eliminated prematurely and might have beaten both London Breed and Mark Leno on a mano-a-mano match?  Jane Kim might want to have that investigated.
It all depends on who the surviving 2nd-ranked votes were on the Breed and Leno ballots and that remains opaque to us unless the full ballot data is released like the vermont city of Burlington did in 2009.
Maybe Jane Kim is SF's Andy Montroll.
--
r b-j 

--r b-j                     rbj at audioimagination.com
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."




-------- Original message --------
From: Christopher Colosi <colosi at gmail.com> 
Date: 6/8/2018  6:24 PM  (GMT-08:00) 
To: election-methods at lists.electorama.com 
Subject: [EM] RCV in SF Mayoral election 

Curious to hear people’s thoughts on some issues.
1. May not elect majority candidateIn SF, we restrict to 3 choices to simplify the process.  As the vote currently stands, 144 votes separate the top two candidates (<0.1%) and over 16,000 ballots have been exhausted (all 3 choices eliminated).  About 9% of voters have been removed from the pool.  It is very possible that the result would have shifted if they had the opportunity to rank a 4th candidate, and therefore, it is possible that we won’t elect the person who truly represents the majority.  Is this common?  This is probably an abnormally close race.  Thoughts?
2. What are your thoughts on London Breed’s response to being asked if RCV is fair?  She stated “This is the system we are working with. That’s a discussion we can have at a later time. For now, we’re stuck with it.” - insinuating it is not fair.  I was quite bothered to have a Dem in a progressive city insinuate that first past the post is more fair.  It also felt divisive.  If Leno wins, will her supporters feel that democracy prevailed, or that the election was stolen?  She also presents herself as a minority candidate and it is my understanding that RCV gives minority candidates better chances and causes all candidates to be more likely to campaign to minority communities.  Am I mistaken?  Are there any legitimate arguments that FPTP can be more fair?  Thoughts?
Regards,—Chris

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