[EM] PR for ethnically polarized electorates

[Forest Simmons]

In Rwanda it was the Hutu and the Tutsi tribal division.  In Iraq the
Sunni, Shia, and Kurds.  In the former Yugoslavia it was the Serbs Croats
and Bosnians.  There are similar divisions today in the Ukraine, Israel,
Syria, Bolivia, etc.

What do they have in common?  A need for electing a representative body
that has as many moderates and as much consensus as possible so that
minorities are not so desperate for separation, i.e. to prevent the scourge
of Balkanization that seems to be spreading like a plague.

Suppose that there are two extreme groups A and B supported by two
individual ethnicities, as well as a more moderate group M with preferences
like

10 A(100)
30 A(100)>M(80)
45 B(100)>M(80)
15 B(100)

(The numbers in parentheses represent voter expectations of relative
benefits.)

In ordinary party list PR methods the parliament would be formed by 40
representatives from A and 60 representatives from B.  The moderate party
would be shut out entirely.

Here are my questions:

1. What method(s) would take this information and elect a parliament with
respective party strengths of  10, 15, and 75  for A, B, and M?

2.  What election method could possibly get the two middle factions to
honestly convey this information via their ballots?  In other words, how to
keep the two middle factions from defecting from their common interest?

Forest
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