[EM] Claims & evidence re: FBC. Optimal strategy with traditional unimproved Condorcet.

[Michael Ossipoff]

Vague, unspecified and unsupported criticisms about those with whom we
disagree are a common Internet behavior, and can be considered at
least one of the most common forms of Internet abuse, particularly
when used as a substitute for answers to questions regarding what we
mean or how we justify our claims.

Acronym definition: I use "TUC" as an abbreviation for "traditional
unimproved Condorcet". An example of a TUC method would be Beatpath or
Ranked-Pairs.

"Perhaps another person could represent the objections in a better
manner. For instance, whether voters actually need FBC to be deterred
from making strategy that destroys a voting method could be an
interesting question.'

Yes, particularly since I haven't heard anyone making such a claim :-)

I, in particular, have never said that FBC is needed in order to deter
anything.

What I have said is that, given our disinformation-dedicated media,
and a gullible public, FBC is needed to avoid a widespread perceived
strategic need for favorite-burial.

[quote]
 I don't think the evidence suggests this.
[endquote]

Fine. I didn't say it. But I did and do say what I wrote immediately
above the above-quoted line.


[quote]
 Someone
else might disagree. But when the person disagreeing specially-pleads
away the evidence that might support my point
[endquote]

Kristofer's evidence consisted of voting in some relatively small
organizational electorates, not from official public elections, where
the evidence strongly, clearly and unequivocally says that voters are
favorite-burial strategic. Kristofer's evidence regarding behavior in
official public elections with traditional unimproved Condorcet(TUC)
consisted of his personal speculative opinion that people will rank
sincerely  :-)

[quote]
 , and then starts with
unfalsifiable explanations for why supporters of methods that fail FBC
support such methods
[endquote]

No. If I suggested that TUC advocates are in denial about a need for
TUC to not have an FBC problem and a chicken dilemma problem, that was
most definitely not part of my argument regarding TUC's strategy
needs.

[quote]
Surely the person
could, for instance, reply that I'm just engaging in a particularly
sophisticated and verbose version of denial, but that's just another
unfalsifiable
[endquote]

It had nothing to do with arguments regarding TUC's strategy needs. I
never claimed that my speculation about denial was provable or
falsifiable, or that it had any bearing on the matter of TUC's
strategy-need.

As for the matter of sincere ranking, vs favorite-burial
strategy-need, I was clear and specific:

We don't have experimental data to directly tell us how people will
rank in TUC, under existing conditions. We do have a few polls, and
discussions, and I've found that, in my experience, they suggest
favorite-burial strategy-need. I don't call that proof.

But that wasn't the main basis of my argument.

Since we don't have sufficient experimental data, what is there to look at?

If we can't say how people have proven that they vote in TUC official
public elections, under existing conditions, then what _is_ there that
we can say?

Well, how about optimal strategy.

I told why, given voters' undenied, universally-expressed,
media-promoted assumptions and beliefs, favorite-burial is the optimal
strategy in TUC. The demonstration was simple. There was nothing
controversial about it. The conclusion about TUC's optimal strategy,
under existing conditions, is undeniable: Ranking the Democrat alone
in 1st place is TUC's optimal strategy, based on voters' current
beliefs and assumptions.

Against that, we have Kristofer's "evidence" about small
organizational electorates, voting that has no relation of official
public elections.

Against that, we have Kristofer's often-expressed personal opinion
that people will rank sincerely in TUC, in official public elections
in today's United States.

I merely pointed out that it's easily and uncontroversially shown
that, with the existing electorate and media, and based on that
electorate's well-known beliefs and assumptions, TUC's optimal
strategy is to rank the Democrat alone in 1st place.

Michael Ossipoff