[EM] Sorry--1 more thing: SFR formula vs subjective SFR

Michael Ossipoff email9648742 at gmail.com
Sun Sep 9 08:45:09 PDT 2012

When I first spoke of SFR, I suggesting calculating, based on
faction-size estimates, how many points would make B beat C if the
faction is bigger than the A faction, but not otherwise.

I posted some formulas for that purpose, given various different kinds
of assumptions about that faction-size information.

Lately I've been speaking of SFR as more of a subjective intuitive
giving of a small boost to B, an amount subjectively perceived as
enough to close the gap with C if B has more support than A, without
being enough of a boost to unduly risk helping B beat A if A has lots
of support.

I advocate both approaches.

The calculated SFR is based on subjective estimates, making its
apparent objectivity illusory. Still, if they're reasonable estimates,
or if the B voters know that the A voters are basing SFR on some
reasonable set of estimates, then the B voters should thereby be
deterred from defecting. Even though the estimates are subjective, the
B voters still know that they're probably good estimates, as good as

But the same can be said if the SFR is based directly and entirely on
subjective perception of the amount that will do the job.

Some might prefer estimates about faction-size, and a formula. Maybe
most wouldn't.

As I said before, I suggest subjective SFR is what sincere rating really is.

And so there's good deterrence against defection against voters who
rate sincerely.

Mike Ossipoff

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