[EM] Omission in SFR assumptions

[Michael Ossipoff]

I left out an assumption, a different interpretation of the 2008 poll
results, in which Obama, Paul, and Kuccinich respectively received 99,
74, and 66 top-rating marks.

Maybe some of the Kuccinich-preferrers top-rated Paul too, but none of
the Paul-preferrers top-rated Kuccinich. Maybe, really, the Paul
faction was no larger than the Kuccinich faction. So maybe, if
everyone had top-rated only their favorite, Paul and Kuccinich would
have both only had 66 top-rating marks.

In that case, to make Paul outpoll Obama, the Kuccinich-preferrers
would have to give Paul 1/2 max. That's convenient, because it could
be done in 3-slot Score, as well as in 0-10 Score, since 3-slot
Score's Middle rating is worth 1/2 max.

Of course these SFR are based on guesses. Which guess you prefer to
use is a matter of subjective preference based on intuition. Intuitive
judgement about which previous-poll-interpretation, &/or which
predicted change from last time, is more likely, &/or how much you
like the other candidate.

For interpreting the previous election or poll result, calculations
could improve on the guesses. Maybe sometimes the solution of a system
of equations could give better estimates of the faction-sizes, based
on the numbers of points ratings each candidate received, at each
points-level, and the total numbers of points received by each
candidate.

I'm not inclined to do that, and so I just based my SFR for Paul on
one of the guesses.

Mike Ossipoff