[EM] Statistical analysis of Voter Models versus real life voting

[Leon Smith]

Hi Kevin,

On Fri, Jan 28, 2011 at 11:01 AM, Kevin Venzke <stepjak at yahoo.fr> wrote:
> The 2D Yee diagrams cast voters around a point without any bias in favor
> of one dimension or the other, as far as I know. I don't think that is
> likely to be realistic. I think a 1D Yee diagram would be more realistic.
> Or else have 2D, but the second dimension is much narrower.

Well,  I don't see why you couldn't create a Yee diagram that doesn't
use a rotationally-symmetric gaussian distribution;  or even some kind
of double- or triple- humped distributions.   Of course interpreting a
diagram would probably be a bit harder.

> I don't know how to prove that some approach is realistic though. In
> real life we tend to see a single dimension for single-winner seats, but
> that could be a product of nomination disincentive produced by the
> particular method (or political framework) being used.

Well,  that is true.   New Hampshire's legislature is considering a
bill that would introduce approval voting state-wide;   I do hope it
passes, and if it does I can't help but think most voters will
continue voting for a single candidate because they won't be aware of
the changes,  or they'll see it as somehow "cheating" or otherwise
view it with suspicion.    (Or even irrationally believing that voting
for their most preferred candidate in addition to a Republican or
Democrat would somehow be a waste of a vote,  helping their least
preferred choice win,  etc.)

I suspect that it will take a generation or two before voting patterns
really change in New Hampshire.   But maybe I'm a little overly
cynical and pessimistic;  some time ago I do remember seeing two
otherwise identical polls in the UK conducted with "vote for one"
versus "vote for many" rules,  and support for a few of the smaller
parties grew quite dramatically.

> It seems to me a "government vs. opposition" mindset causes voters to
> think in terms of a single dimension.
>
> I also don't think Yee diagrams based on sincere voting are all that
> compelling.

I remain rather unconvinced that Yee diagrams are a good argument for
Approval or Condorcet,   but I sure do think they are a compelling
argument against Instant Runoff Voting.

Best,
Leon