[EM] Clarification about Threat/Promise strategy

[MIKE OSSIPOFF]

When I said that it's a matter of your fear that you'll help the inbetween 
candidate take the win from the better frontrunner, vs the hope that you'll
help hir take the win from the worse frontrunner, of course that hope and that
fear aren't just feelings about probabilities. They have to do with
the product of probability and goodness or badness of the result. But we
don't know them from multiplying numbers. We know them as our most basic
feeling about the situation.

I'm saying that that overall feeling of threat or promise is more basic
than probability estimates. Or utility estimates.

Likewise, when I spoke of the threat of the worse frontrunner and the promise
of the better one, I was referring to what could be called the product of
a probability and a badness or goodness of outcome--though it's not calculated;
It's what is directly felt.

Which of those candidates is the imporant one to consider in regards to that basic gut perception.

Do you want to avoid taking away that hope, or do you want to try to take
away that threat?

Mike Ossipoff