[EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

[Dave Ketchum]

On Jun 16, 2010, at 11:11 PM, Kevin Venzke wrote:
> Hi Dave,
> --- En date de : Mer 16.6.10, Dave Ketchum  
> <davek at clarityconnect.com> a écrit :
>>>> That is possible. Would primaries encourage that
>> effect? If
>>>> so, would we expect parties in two-party states
>> without
>>>> voter primaries to be closer to each other?
>>>
>>> I'm not sure. I tend to view primaries as one form of
>> a phenomenon that
>>> will inevitably happen under FPP one way or another.
>> If there's something
>>> important about them I guess it has something to do
>> with timing...
>>
>> Plurality NEEDS primaries because its voters can vote for
>> only one.  If X1 and X2 run for party X, without
>> primaries, they can expect to each get only half the votes
>> intended for party X.  If Y1 is the only candidate for
>> party Y, Y1 has a big advantage over X1 and X2.
>
> What I'm saying is that if we didn't have primaries, candidates would
> either drop out or voters would decide not to support them, so that
> there would still only be two viable candidates on election day.  
> What I'm
> unclear on is what effect primaries have (or we should expect that  
> they
> have) on candidate positions in comparison to just having candidates  
> drop
> off as they start to lose in the polls.

True that candidates can drop out, and some might respond to  
unexpected competition with such.  Voters deciding not to support X1/ 
X2 is possible.  My point was that plurality can be helped via  
primaries when your alternatives fail.
>
> Kevin Venzke