[EM] IRV vs Plurality

[robert bristow-johnson]

On Jan 10, 2010, at 3:42 PM, Juho wrote:

> On Jan 10, 2010, at 10:23 PM, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
>
>>
>> On Jan 10, 2010, at 2:40 PM, Jonathan Lundell wrote:
>>
>>> This is a point that bears repeating, since it doesn't seem to  
>>> sink in. It's much to easy to casually assume that ballots cast  
>>> under one system (in this case IRV) can be recounted under some  
>>> other rule with the assumption that voters would have cast the  
>>> same (or at least equivalent) ballots under that other rule.
>>
>> but i think that it is reasonable to "casually" assume that the  
>> ranked-order ballots marked for IRV would, for the most part, be  
>> the same if the election were to be decided by Condorcet rules.   
>> that, plus the Freedom of Information laws, allows us to say what  
>> would have happened with Condorcet rules.  the tabulation rules  
>> are different, but the ballots are the same.
>
> I believe the voters would have voted in the same way in Condorcet.  
> That is because they did not understand how IRV works nor how  
> Condorcet works (or at least they didn't understand what strategic  
> opportunities there are). They were told that in IRV you just rank  
> the candidates sincerely, and that's what they probably did. I have  
> not heard of any (IRV specific) strategic advices that would have  
> been given to the voters before the election.

probably not in 2009.

> So I believe the votes were quite sincere rankings. In the next IRV  
> election things might be a bit different.


i think so.  just like the "Libruls" learned that their vote for  
Ralph Nader (particularly those in Florida) ended up electing the  
Abomination in 2000 (which cured them of any idealistic notion of  
voicing their vote for 3rd party candidates), the GOP Prog-haters in  
Burlington have learned that they were indispensable to electing the  
candidate they hated (by their sincere vote for the candidate they  
liked).  IRV literally transferred the burden of having to think  
strategically from the liberal majority to the conservative minority  
in Burlington.

--

r b-j                  rbj at audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."