[EM] Influence of a single vote (was Voting strategy etc.)

[Juho Laatu]

--- On Thu, 18/6/09, Michael Allan <mike at zelea.com> wrote:

> > Juho Laatu wrote:
> > > Do you mean that one individual vote
> > > practically never changes the result
> > > of a large election?
> > >
> > > One can see this from two viewpoints.
> > > 1) can I change the result
> > > 2) can I and similar minded people
> > >   together change the result
>  
> Raph Frank wrote:
> > Well, you only control yourself.
>  
> For perspective: The influence of an individual vote on the
> results is
> expected to be different between private and public
> systems.  The
> actual influence of a private vote is usually exactly
> zero.  I guess
> it depends a little on the voting method, but it's almost
> always zero
> in FPTP.
> 
> On the other hand, the influence of a public vote is
> usually positive,
> though incalculable.  It is incalculable because the
> weight of a
> public expression per se cannot be felt in a strictly
> subjective,
> individual context.  It can only be felt in an
> inter-subjective,
> social context.
> 
> Juho, you're perhaps making the opposite mistake?  You
> look at private
> voting from an inter-subjective persepective.  I don't
> think that's
> valid.  The vote itself can have no influence on the
> behaviour of
> other voters.  It typically has no influence at all,
> except on the
> voter herself.  So it's purely subjective.

In elections votes are typically kept
secret until counted. So they are not
supposed to influence the decision of
other voters.

My thinking was that although one vote
does not influence the decisions of
others, the factors that influenced the
voting behaviour of one voter are mostly
the same also for other voters, and
similar minded voters are therefore
likely to make similar decisions. The
individual voter may thus trust that
other voters will be there (except if
his/her opinions are marginal) and
together they will influence the outcome
of the election. => "Unless I'm alone,
we can influence."

Juho


> 
> (What's also interesting is the objective perspective of
> manipulation.
>  But that means looking at the influence of money and
> power, and not
>  votes per se.)
> 
> -- 
> Michael Allan
> 
> Toronto, 647-436-4521
> http://zelea.com/
> 
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