[Election-Methods] Top 5 Primary Election

[Don&Cathy Hoffard]

In this Example I will uses the 2008 US Presidential Election only to
illustrate a point - you could assume a state Senators race

 

We currently have about 25 candidates running for President of the United
States.

9 Democrats

9 Republicans

3 (assumed) Green

2 (assumed) Libertarian

2 (assumed Constitution

 

Bases on the current system we will have 5 candidates in the General
Election.

1 Democrat

1 Republican

1 Green

1 Libertarian

1 Constitution

 

Voters will be asked the vote for one of these candidates.

 

Why do we have to choose be among the following preferences (using
head-to-head match ups - i.e. Condorcet) among the 25 candidates running?

 

4 most preferred Democrat Party (Clinton-Plurality winner)

5 most preferred Republican Party (Giuliani-Plurality winner)

15-19 most preferred Green Party (assume Nader)

21 most preferred Libertarian Party (unknown)

23 most preferred Constitution Party (unknown)

 

If we have to have 5 candidate in the general election why not have the TOP
5 (based on the Condorcet method)

 

They would be the following (assuming the Primary Election matches the Dec.
Polls):

1.	Edwards (would beat all Republicans and Democrats based on Condorcet
rankings see below)
2.	(tie) McCain
3.	(tie) Obama
4.	Clinton
5.	Giuliani

We could then chose the winner (and next president) using the Condorcet
method (range, approval, or IRV methods)

If the General Election voting matched to polls then Edwards would be
elected President

 

Poll results:

 


Margins of Victory (based on Dec Polls)

 

 

 


Vs.

Giuliani

Romney

Huckabee

McCain

Thompson

Average


Clinton

6

11

10

-2

13

7.6


Obama

7

13

15

0

12

9.4


Edwards

9

22

25

8

14

15.6


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Average

7.3

15.3

16.7

2.0

13.0

10.9


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Concordet ranking (assumed based on margins and averages)

 

 

 

 

 


1

Edwards 

 

 

 

 

 


2 tie

Obama

 

 

 

 

 


2 tie

McCain

 

 

 

 

 


4

Clinton

 

 

 

 

 


5

Giuliani

 

 

 

 

 


6

Thompson

 

 

 

 

 


7

Romney

 

 

 

 

 


8

Huckabee

 

 

 

 

 

								

 

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