# [EM] RE : Re: RE : Re: Range voting, zero-info strategy simulation (raphfrk)

Kevin Venzke stepjak at yahoo.fr
Wed Nov 1 09:27:23 PST 2006

raphfrk,

--- raphfrk at netscape.net a écrit :
> From: stepjak at yahoo.fr
>  > --- raphfrk at netscape.net a écrit :
>  > > A voter might be willing to use option C even though D gives a
> better
>  > > expected value.
>  >
>  > In my opinion, if the voter prefers to vote option C than option D,
>  > because he doesn't want to risk the -1 outcome, then he has not
>  > correctly estimated that value as being -1.
>
>  I guess it depends on how you define it. However, the example often
> given is which would you prefer?
>
>  51% chance of getting \$200
>  100% chance of getting \$100
>
>  Risk aversion is a known economic effect.
>
>  It only happens when you are talking about a major portion of a person's
>  wealth.

However, an amount of money need not be proportional to its value. I
would take the \$100, because to me, winning \$200 is not quite worth twice
as much as winning \$100. Also, taking the first choice and coming away
with nothing would actually be worth less than nothing, because I'd have
to deal with the remorse from knowing I could have had \$100.

For me the \$200 needs to be closer to \$300 for the options to be about
the same value to me.

>  > Do feel this is a big problem? I have seen more concern that voters
>  > will vote the opposite way: Commit to a favorite candidate and cut
>  > off any chance of even electing the second favorite.
>
>  No, I don't think this is a problem. In fact, having voters who
>  don't vote in the extremes can help smooth out election results,
>  so they don't jump between two very different results.

Possible.

>  I was trying to give a rationality for people not using maximally

Ah, I see.

Kevin Venzke

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