[EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

Rob LeGrand honky1998 at yahoo.com
Fri Mar 10 23:25:54 PST 2006


I took the raw data from the site Brian Olson posted and ended up with a
slightly different pairwise table:

     (0)  (1)  (2)  (3)  (4)  (5)
(0)    - 5545 6747 3991 6790 7336
(1) 3556    - 5165 3397 5136 5875
(2) 1161 1289    -  804 2028 3290
(3) 4763 5730 6961    - 7027 7351
(4)  987 1318 1869  603    - 3094
(5)  323  311  431  194  510    -

(0) Hinda Miller
(1) Kevin J. Curley
(2) Louie The Cowman Beaudin
(3) Bob Kiss
(4) Loyal Ploof
(5) Write-ins

It's identical to the one at http://two.bolson.org/a.html except for the
first column: I have Hinda Miller with many more votes against her.  I've
looked for errors in my results but haven't found the problem.  If I'm
right, the Condorcet winner changes from Miller to Bob Kiss, the IRV
winner.  I think finding a real-world election in which IRV failed to
elect the voted Condorcet candidate would be quite significant, so I'm
hoping my results are wrong, but they do seem more consistent with the
final round of the real IRV election (although they're still off by a
handful of ballots).  It'd be great if someone else could take the raw
data from the election page and triple-check the results independently.
Regardless of the result, thanks to Brian for pointing this out.

--
Rob LeGrand, psephologist
rob at approvalvoting.org
Citizens for Approval Voting
http://www.approvalvoting.org/

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