[EM] advocacy by means of exit polls

[Stephen Turner]

This is an advocacy idea.

It's well-known that exit polling is a highly reliable

way of predicting results.  
 
The organizations which carry this out are going to do
so anyway, so there would be little additional cost if
one or more could be persuaded to obtain at the same
time sufficient extra information to enable the
outcomes according to some other aggregation systems
to be found.  For example, voters could be asked for
pairwise comparisons among the leading candidates, or
to complete an IRV-style ballot.

So could the various advocacy groups direct a joint
request to the polling organizations, and/or just send
a joint letter to major newspapers and (especially)
public service broadcasters?  

It might be beneficial if the groups were to emphasize
that they have major differences, but that these are
being set aside temporarily in view of the importance
of the issue. 

Perhaps (in such a letter) a couple of expert opinions
on how a result would likely have been different with
a different rule could be adduced.  It could also be
said that those who believe the existing system to be
adequate ought not to fear its being tested.  

The advantages of doing this, as I see it, would be:
- it would raise the issue in public consciousness
- it could serve as a public acceptability test
- it would be a way for the different groups to   
  develop and demonstrate political maturity, and
  indeed to get to know each other
- there would be some real data to work on (for us).

Now of course all this is not the same as simulating
the contest under the alternative rules, because 
people would not have had a chance to think about
how they would vote.  But then this ought to mean that
they would generally report their preferences 
honestly.

REDUCING THE COSTS
1) Perhaps a foundation or NGO of some kind could be 
persuaded to underwrite some of the extra cost.
2) It couuld be done only in a few locations.  
3) Collation and analysis of the results could be done
 
   by volunteers.  
4) There is no need for these extra results to become
available immediately.    

Stephen


	
	
		
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