[EM] [Junk Election Methods] 05/03/02 - The Lower Choices are Mostly Junk:

[Donald Davison]

05/03/02 - The Lower Choices are Mostly Junk:

Layton wrote: "The above line option is only there for multi-winner (PR)
elections, where 90-95% of ballots are above the line."

Donald here: The 90-95% numbers are most likely that high because the
voters are required to rank all the candidates if the voter opted to vote
below the line.  This will drive many voters to vote above the line.  When
a voter does vote below the line he may make a few informed ranking and
then rank the rest in alphabetical order or he may vote according to a `How
to Vote' card.  Either way we can be sure that most of the lower choices
will be junk choices, that is, choices based on little informed
intelligence.
  The next quote from Layton will also touch on the topic of junk choices.

Layton: "However, in single winner elections how-to-vote cards are very
important and followed by a large number of voters, which pretty much
amounts to the same thing.  I'm not aware of any studies or concrete
figures on exactly how many voters follow the cards, but anecdotal evidence
suggests any close three way contests are more often than not decided on
the preferences on the cards (ie, in a close-ish race between A, B & C, if
A and B both "endorse" C to recieve their 2nd preferences, then C is likely
to win whether he is the sincere IRV winner or not)."

Donald:  There is a message in what Layton has told us.  That message is
that lower choices are not to be trusted.  This message should be recorded
in the minds of those of you that are anti-IRV, for it is you people who
say that `IRV does not use all the information'.  The information you are
referring to is the lower choices, but those lower choices are suspect even
in an IRVing election, and yet you insist on using more of them in your
junk methods.

You go around with your head in the air, pretending that there's some high
intelligence in the lower choices, if only we would use the proper method
to revel this wisdom - bullshit.

There is no more higher intelligence in the lower choices than someone
reading a `How to Vote' card.  You don't need to be informed about the
candidates in order to do that.  Have you people not heard the term
`Garbage In - Garbage Out'.  The more garbage that is included in your
favorite election method, the more garbage will be the results.  Condorcet
will use three times as many of the lower choices than IRVing will use, so
therefore the Condorcet result is three times more likely to be garbage.
Approval will use six, and counting, times more of the lower choices, which
means we can be sure the Approval results will be garbage results.

Most of the discussions on this list consist of junk math being used to
create variants of junk single-seat election methods, but now and then a
good piece of information comes along like what Layton has told us in his
post.  No one should miss out on the value of this information.  What
Layton has told us comes from real elections in the real world, not from
people wading around in a swamp at night with their heads in the air
inhaling swamp-gas.


Regards,
   Donald Davison, host of New Democracy at http://www.mich.com/~donald
                        Candidate Election Methods
   +=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+
   |                        Q U O T A T I O N                          |
   |  "Democracy is a beautiful thing,                                 |
   |        except that part about letting just any old yokel vote."   |
   |                           - Age 10 -                              |
   +=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+
    APV   Approval Voting
    ATV   Alternative Vote  aka  IRV Instant Runoff Voting  aka  IRVing
    FPTP  First Past The Post  aka  Plurality
    NOTA  None of the Above  aka  RON Re-Open Nominations
    STV   Single Transferable Vote  aka  Choice Voting  aka  Hare-Clark
          aka  Preference Voting  aka  Hare Preferential Voting

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