[EM] 3 candidates, few voters, 0-info

[Richard Moore]

MIKE OSSIPOFF wrote:

> It seems to me that the above-the-mean strategy is still valid
> no matter how few voters there are, as long as there are only
> 3 candidates.

Then can you explain the following? I posted this at the end of my
previous message:

"If we replace voters 1, 2, and 3 with three groups of 1000 voters
each, with the preferences and voting probabilities indicated in the
example, then I think the mean utility strategy would work (because
of the equal probabilities) even though it is not a true ZI case."

I think since all the Pij are equal in this case, the mean utility
strategy
will work. So why doesn't it work with the same probabilities in the
small-population case?

As the population shrinks, won't the Pij start to diverge (because of
the effect of your certain A vote), eventually reaching a point where
the mean utility is no longer useful for optimum strategy?

Why wouldn't the same effect apply in a zero-information case?

 -- Richard