[EM] Always A Primary Concern

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Always A Primary Concern 
By Chuck Todd
Thursday, March 8, 2001

Ask any candidate recruiter at any of the four major campaign committees and 
you will get the same answer: Primaries are bad for their side, good for the 
opposing party. 

After all, primaries can be a drain to a candidate's resources, a linchpin 
for ongoing intra-party battles and an unintended source of opposition 
research for the opposing party's nominee. 

But there is another school of thought that says primaries can be healthy for 
a party, particularly a state political party looking to develop a bench of 
candidates for future races. And primaries can allow one party's candidates 
to dominate media coverage, drowning out an unopposed candidate from another 
party desperately trying to earn free media. 

For the '02 cycle, a number of key races appear to be attracting 
multi-candidate fields, meaning we could see more closely contested primaries 
than even '94, when 29 major-party nominees for governor and Senate won with 
less than 50 percent or needed a runoff to get their party's nod. 

The two biggest factors contributing to the potentially busy primary cycle 
are redistricting and open governor seats. Just because representatives are 
drawn out of their districts doesn't mean they're drawn out of their states. 
Look for a number of re-mapped reps to take an "up-or-out" approach -- 
running for either Senate or governor rather than lose an embarrassing member 
vs. member primary. Many governors who were elected in '94 and re-elected in 
'98 are now retiring because of term limits, producing plenty of open-seat 
contests. And in this day of "less government" on the federal level, what 
aspiring pol wouldn't choose to run for governor over other offices? 

All this talk of primaries had us wondering: Which party can best handle 
primaries? And statistically, are they good or bad for the parties? 

For our purposes, we examined every governor and Senate primary held since 
1990 and pulled out any in which the nominee won with less than 50 percent or 
was forced into a runoff. 

We know that this leaves out a few competitive two-person primaries, but we 
believe that candidates who can win more than 50 percent of their party's 
support automatically have fewer problems unifying their intra-party factions 
than do nominees who win with less than a majority. 

Our Charts
By our count, 108 major-party nominations for governor or Senate since '90 
have gone to candidates who won with less than 50 percent or won runoffs. The 
"W" or "L" indicates how the candidate fared in the general election. 

Primaries 
Alaska Gov '98 GOP (Lindauer) -- L
Alaska Sen '92 Dem (Smith) -- L
Ariz. Sen '94 Dem (Coppersmith) -- L
Ariz. Gov '94 Dem (Basha) -- L
Calif. Sen '98 GOP (Fong) -- L
Calif. Gov '94 Dem (Brown) -- L 
Calif. Sen '92 Dem (Boxer) -- W 
Calif. Sen '92 GOP (Herschenson) -- L
Colo. Sen '92 Dem (Campbell) -- W
Fla. Gov '94 GOP (Bush) -- L*
Hawaii Sen '98 GOP (Young) -- L
Idaho Gov '94 GOP (Batt) -- W
Idaho Gov '90 GOP (Fairchild) -- L
Ill. Gov '98 Dem (Poshard) -- L
Ill. Sen '96 GOP (Salvi) -- L
Ill. Gov '94 Dem (Netsch) -- L
Ill. Sen '92 Dem (Moseley-Braun) -- W
Ind. Sen '98 GOP (Helmke) -- L
Ind. Gov '92 GOP (Pearson) -- L
Iowa Gov '90 Dem (Avenson) -- L
Ky. Sen '98 Dem (Baesler) -- L
Ky. Gov '95 Dem (Patton) -- W
Ky. Gov '91 Dem (Jones) -- W
Kan. Gov '94 GOP (Graves) -- W
Kan. Gov '90 GOP (Hayden) -- L
Kan. Gov '90 Dem (Finney) -- W
Maine Gov '94 GOP (Collins) -- L
Md. Sen '00 GOP (Rappaport) -- L
Md. Sen '98 GOP (Pierpont) -- L
Md. Sen '94 GOP (Brock) -- L
Mass. Gov '94 Dem (Roosevelt) -- L
Mich. Gov '98 Dem (Fieger) -- L
Mich. Gov '94 Dem (Wolpe) -- L
Mich. Sen '94 Dem (Carr) -- L
Minn. Sen '00 Dem (Dayton) -- W
Minn. Gov '98 Dem (Humphrey) -- L
Minn. Gov '94 Dem (Marty) -- L
Minn. Gov '90 GOP (Carlson) -- W**
Mo. Sen '94 Dem (Wheat) -- L
Mo. Gov '92 GOP (Webster) -- L
Mo. Sen '92 Dem (Rothman-Serot) -- L
Mont. Gov '00 Dem (O'Keefe) -- L
Mont. Sen '94 Dem (Jack Mudd) -- L
Mont. Gov '92 Dem (Bradley) -- L
Mont. Sen '90 GOP (Kolstad) -- L
Neb. Gov '98 GOP (Johanns) -- W
Neb. Gov '94 GOP (Spence) -- L
Neb. Gov '90 Dem (Nelson) -- W
Nev. Sen '92 GOP (Dahl) -- L
Nev. Gov '90 GOP (Gallaway) -- L
N.H. Gov '98 GOP (Lucas) -- L
N.H. Gov '96 GOP (Lamontagne) -- L
N.H. Gov '92 Dem (Arnesen) -- L
N.H. Gov '90 Dem (Grandmaison) -- L
N.H. Sen '90 Dem (Durkin) -- L
N.J. Sen '00 GOP (Franks) -- L
N.J. Gov '97 Dem (McGreevey) -- L
N.J. Gov '93 GOP (Whitman) -- W
N.M. Gov '98 Dem (Chavez) -- L
N.M. Gov '94 Dem (King) -- L
N.M. Gov '94 GOP (Johnson) -- W
N.Y. Sen '92 Dem (Abrams) -- L
N.C. Gov '00 GOP (Vinroot) -- L
N.C. Sen '92 GOP (Faircloth) -- W
Ohio Sen '00 Dem (Celeste) -- L
Ohio Sen '94 Dem (Hyatt) -- L
Okla. Sen '98 Dem (Carroll) -- L
Okla. Gov '94 Dem (Mildren) -- L
Ore. Sen '92 Dem (Aucoin) -- L
Pa. Sen '00 Dem (Klink) -- L
Pa. Gov '98 Dem (Itkin) -- L
Pa. Sen '98 Dem (Lloyd) -- L
Pa. Gov '94 GOP (Ridge) -- W
Pa. Gov '94 Dem (Singel) -- L
Pa. Sen '92 Dem (Yeakel) -- L
R.I. Gov '90 Dem (Sundlun) -- W
Tenn. Sen '00 Dem (Clark) -- L
Tenn. Gov '98 Dem (Hooker) -- L
Tenn. Sen '94 GOP (Frist) -- W
Vt. Gov '94 Dem (Kelley) -- L
Wash. Sen '92 GOP (Chandler) -- L
Wash. Gov '92 GOP (Eikenberry) -- L
W.Va. Gov '92 Dem (Caperton) -- W
Wyo. Sen '96 GOP (Enzi) -- W
Wyo. Gov '94 GOP (Geringer) -- W
Wyo. Sen '90 Dem (Helling) -- L


 Runoffs 
Ala. Gov '98 GOP (James) -- L
Ala. Sen '96 Dem (Bedford) -- L
Ala. Sen '96 GOP (Sessions) -- W
Ala. Gov '94 GOP (James) -- W
Ala. Gov '90 Dem (Hubbert) -- L
Alaska Sen '98 Dem (Lincoln) -- W
Alaska Sen '96 Dem (Bryant) -- L
Fla. Sen '94 Dem (Rodham) -- L
Ga. Gov '98 Dem (Barnes) -- W
Ga. Sen '96 GOP (Millner) -- L
Ga. Gov '94 GOP (Millner) -- L
Ga. Sen '92 GOP (Coverdell) -- W
Ga. Gov '90 Dem (Miller) -- W
Miss. Sen '00 Dem (Brown) -- L
Miss. Sen '94 Dem (Harper) -- L
Miss. Gov '91 GOP (Fordice) -- W
N.C. Sen '90 Dem (Gantt) -- L
S.C. Gov '94 GOP (Beasley) -- W
S.C. Gov '94 Dem (Theodore) -- L
Texas Sen '00 Dem (Kelly) -- L
Texas Sen '96 Dem (Morales) -- L
Texas Gov '90 Dem (Richards) -- W
 


* runoff opponent dropped out, making Bush automatic nominee.
** primary winner dropped out of race; nomination awarded to Carlson days 
before general election. 

Okay, now that you are bleary-eyed from reading the above chart, here's what 
it tells us: 


Seventy-eight of these 108 primary winners lost their respective general 
elections -- a failure rate of 72 percent. Subtract the runoff winners and 
losers and the failure rate rises to 76 percent. Not surprisingly, runoffs 
can actually help heal a party because the eventual winner is picked by a 
majority. And while runoffs sometimes deplete resources, they can help the 
eventual runoff winner earn more free media, allowing an underdog candidate 
to come out ahead in the end. 

Of the other 28 percent (or 30 successful non-majority primary winners), 
nearly one-fourth faced opponents who also won primaries with less than 50 
percent or in runoffs. So while no primary is preferred, if the other side 
has a crowded field, then it doesn't hurt too much if your side also draws a 
crowd. 

Of the 30 non-majority winners, the two parties split right down the middle, 
nabbing 15 contests each. However, the GOP has a much higher success rate 
than the Democrats in recovering from tough primaries. Of the 78 general 
election losers, Democrats account for 49 of the candidates, or 63 percent, 
while the GOP accounts for just 29 of the losers, or 37 percent. Could it be 
that Democrats have a way of holding grudges longer the Republicans? 

Surprisingly, 12 of the 30 non-majority winners went on to oust incumbents, 
somewhat knocking down the notion that it is easier for a non-majority 
primary winner to knock off a challenger candidate than an incumbent. 
So here ya go, campaign recruiters. Here's your evidence that about the only 
thing contested primaries do for a party is increase its chances for losing 
the seat. For the junkies out there, here's hoping candidates don't believe 
the evidence!