[EM] Richard's frontrunners example

[Martin Harper]

MIKE OSSIPOFF wrote:

> Wouldn't it
> make much more sense to just say that, since water can't talk, then
> the statement that you're a banana if water can talk isn't saying
> you're a banana? Can it be true or false to not say that you're a
> banana? The statement would be true if it said that you aren't a banana.
> But it doesn't. It merely doesn't say that you are one.

The statement "I am a banana or I am not" is true. The statement "1+1=2" 
is true. Such statements are tautologies, and tell us nothing we didn't 
already know. They are still true. They are probably the most

We even use this in normal speech. "If he's a lawyer, then I'm the 
Pope's second cousin". "If Blackpool win, I'll eat my hat". Both true if 
he isn't a lawyer, and blackpool doesn't win. (both probably false if 
they do).

 
> Now we're talking about conventions of logicians & mathematicians.
> But conventions aren't the same as facts.

If you say Pij, then you're using mathematical terminology.

If you say Pt|ij, as Richard did, then you're using mathematical 
terminology for conditional probabilities, and as such have to be using 
the mathematical definition of 'if'.

If you use large numbers of such symbols, and then go on to talk about 
differentials and worse, the probability that you're talking in 
mathspeak is pretty darn close to one.