[EM] Richard's frontrunners example
Martin Harper
mcnh2 at cam.ac.uk
Tue Feb 20 02:39:10 PST 2001
Can I try a simpler example?
42 Voters. 3 Candidates (ABCD)
20 of them are cloned, and always vote identically for one of A,B,C.
(one in three of each)
10 of them are committed "A" supporters.
10 of them is a floating voters between A,B,C. (one in three of each)
1 of them is a committed B supporter
1 of them is a committed C supporter.
The probability that, given a tie, A is a frontrunner, is 1. The
probability that A is a frontrunner is around 1/3. 1 != 1/3.
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