Mathematical utility expectation maximization in Approval

[MIKE OSSIPOFF]

Bart wrote:

>But the probability of B or C being in a tie, given a
>tie exists, is not necessarily proportional to the likelihood of B or C
>winning.

Certainly not. It's proportional to the square root of the likelihood
of winning.

You might say "But isn't that just a rough estimate?, rather than
the actual probability?". But what is the actual probability than
our best estimate of it, however rough an estimate it is?

And so, if we're estimating individual frontrunner probabilities
from win probabilities than a candidate's individual frontrunner
probability is proportional to the square root of his win probability.

Mike Ossipoff

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