[EM] Introduction (cont.)

Roy royone at yahoo.com
Thu Aug 9 09:16:05 PDT 2001

> ...If we think X and Y are 
> the front-runners, and we like X better than Y, we can fully 
> approve X along with everyone we like better, and fully 
> disapprove Y along with everyone we hate worse. 

Yes, we can. That's the perceived run-off effect.

> We can 
> use an above-the-mean-utility strategy on those candidates 
> (using the mean of only the candidates we do think are 
> front-runners -- which also works if we think there are more 
> than two likely front-runners).

That's a rather slavish devotion to unreliable probabilities. If 
those candidates turn out to be contenders, that means our 
probability assumptions were drastically wrong, and making strong 
statements based on faulty data is a strategically bad move. At that 
point, it would be more prudent (IMO) to vote as if you had zero 

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