[EM] Fw: IBCM, Tideman, Schulze - Reply Part 1

[Bart Ingles]

Norman Petry wrote:

> On 5 Mar 2000 Bart Ingles wrote:
> 
> >Adding a 'random society' component to the model would increase the
> >probability of cycles.  It looks like a purely random model reaches 50%
> >at around 10 or 11 candidates (it would still take many more to reach
> >the figure shown above, though).
> 
> Bart didn't give a source, but I think I heard somewhere that this statistic
> was from some of Duncan Black's writings. [...]

FWIW, I got it from Merrill (1988), Tables 2.1 and 2.2, given as part of
the background for Condorcet efficiency simulation results.

Using spatial models with two and four dimensions, 98+% of elections had
Condorcet winners.  With the purely random model (voter rankings
generated from random utilities, not randomly generated matrices), the
5-candidate figure was around 76%.

-B