[EM] Majority winner set

Sat Dec 2 11:27:37 PST 2000

I'm still grasping for a counting method which is easily explained to the
public.  Let me try this out with you. Using IRV, eliminate all but the two
top candidates, in order from least to most.  A look at the real life
current returns in Florida shows, better than most mathematical formulas,
how critical the order of transfer becomes in a close election.  Would this
be an improvement over the current definition of IRV?
Janet
----- Original Message -----
From: "MIKE OSSIPOFF" <nkklrp at hotmail.com>
To: <election-methods-list at eskimo.com>
Sent: Saturday, December 02, 2000 10:11 AM
Subject: Re: [EM] Majority winner set


>
>
>
> Markus's definition of sincere Approval voting says that reversing or
> falsifying preferences among candidates other than the incumbant is
> sincere. Nonsense.
>
> Besides, it seems real funky to have different sincerity definitions
> for different methods.
> >To my opinion, "sincerity" must be defined in such a manner that there is
> >a unique (but not necessarily deterministic) way of voting "sincerely"
for
> >a voter with a given opinion.
>
> Though everyone has a right to their opinion, you'd have a difficult
> time convincing others to share that one.
>
> Likewise, sincere means that you're not misrepresenting your
> preferences, but it certainly doesn't say anything about whether
> or not your voting is influences by strategic considerations. As
> was pointed out, a sincere ranking can be a strategic vote, if it's
> done after a strategic calculation when other ways of voting were
> considered.
>
>
> >Mike wrote (24 Nov 2000):
> > > A voter votes sincerely if he doesn't vote a preference
> > > that isn't a sincere preference or leave unvoted a sincere
> > > preference that the balloting system would have allowed him
> > > to vote in addition to the preferences that he actually did
> > > vote.
> >
> >To my opinion, this is only a necessary but not a sufficient condition
> >for "sincerity." To my opinion, it is also necessary that the voting
> >behaviour of a "sincere" voter does not depend on his information
> >about the voting behaviour of the other voters.
>
> I answered this mistaken claim earlier in this message. Say I
> sincerely believe that candidate X is corrupt. So I spread the word
> everywhere that he's corrupt, so that he won't win. I'm doing it
> for a strategic purpose, with an intent to change the outcome of the
> election. But I also sincerely believe that it's true. Am I acting
> insincerely?
>
> >
> >Mike wrote (1 Dec 2000):
> > > Markus wrote (30 Nov 2000):
> > > > I doubt that those who don't promote Approval Voting
> > > > will agree to your definition of "sincerity."
> > >
> > > I'm reasonably sure that Brams & Fishburn have said, in their book
> > > _Approval Voting_, that, for Approval, they define sincere voting
> > > as voting without reversing a preferences, without falsifying a
> > > preference.
> >
> >Brams and Fishburn are well known supporters of Approval Voting.
>
> I'd misunderstood that sentence, and thought that you'd said
> "promote" instead of "don't promote".
>
> But what are you saying?
> That the person who doesn't vote Gore over Bush because he wants to
> vote Nader over Gore is voting insincerely?. He can't express both
> preferences. As I said, not doing the impossible can't be counted as
> an act, and so it also isn't an insincere act.
>
> >
> >Mike wrote (1 Dec 2000):
> > > Their definition means the same thing that my definition means when
> > > it's applied to Approval. My definition agrees with how Brams &
> > > Fishburn would define sincere voting for Approval, and it also
> > > agrees with how we'd all define sincere voting with rank balloting
> > > and Plurality.
> >
> >When Approval Voting is used then the optimal strategy looks as
> >follows:
> >
> >1. Approve all those candidate you prefer to the expected winner.
> >2. Disapprove all those candidate to which you prefer the expected
> >    winner.
> >3. Approve the expected winner when rather a less preferred than
> >    a more preferred candidate is elected. Otherwise disapprove him.
>
> #3 isn't clear. It should say "Vote for the expected winner when
> the other of the 2 frontrunners is someone whom you like less."
>
> This is a better way of saying what you said:
>
> Vote for whichever of the likely 2 frontrunners you prefer to the other,
> and vote for everyone whom you like better than him.
>
>
> That's one way of saying that you should vote for the candidate you'd
> vote for in Plurality, and for everyone whom you like more.
>
> But the person who likes mathematics might want to be more
> elaborate, and take into account estimates of frontrunner probabilities
> for the various pairs of candidates, to calculate strategy for
> Plurality or Approval. I emphasize that that isn't necessary, and
> that one can do fine in Approval by voting for the candidate he'd
> vote for in Plurality and for everyone whom he likes better--for
> his favorite of the 2 expected frontrunners and for everyone whom
> he likes better.
>
> >Due to Mike's definition of "sincerity," a voter who uses this
> >strategy votes "sincerely." To my opinion, this voter votes
> >"insincerely" at least in those cases where he would have voted
> >in a different manner when he had no information about the voting
> >behaviour of the oher voters.
>
> Did you say that with the purpose of convincing anyone or influencing
> anyone? Then you didn't say it sincerely. It was an insincere
> statement :-)
>
> Mike
>
>
>
____________________________________________________________________________
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>


begin 666 2000 Florida Presidential Votes.doc
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